Bitwise CIO Says Crypto Winter Began Back in January 2025

• Hougan says the crypto winter began in January 2025, with BTC down 39% and ETH down 53%, mirroring past bear cycles.

• ETF and treasury inflows bought 744,417 BTC, delaying recognition of weakness and softening declines in major assets.

• Large-cap performance split by access, while fear, leverage unwinds, and fatigue signal conditions seen near prior cycle lows.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the crypto market entered a prolonged winter starting January 2025, not recently as many believe. He said the downturn unfolded across global crypto markets, driven by falling prices, leverage unwinds, and profit-taking. Hougan shared the assessment in a recent market commentary, citing price data, ETF flows, and investor behavior.

Prices Fell as Sentiment Shifted Across Crypto Markets

According to Hougan, Bitcoin has dropped 39% from its October 2025 all-time high, while Ethereum fell 53%. Many other digital assets declined even more over the same period. He said the downturn resembles prior bear cycles seen in 2018 and 2022.

Hougan noted crypto sentiment weakened despite regulatory progress and rising institutional interest. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains near extreme fear levels, even as positive macro developments emerged.

However, Hougan said good news rarely lifts prices during deep crypto winters. He explained that adoption headlines and Wall Street hiring matter long term, not during market exhaustion. He added that crypto winters historically end through fatigue rather than optimism.

ETF and Treasury Flows Masked Early Market Weakness

Hougan said institutional inflows delayed broader recognition of the downturn. He pointed to ETF and Digital Asset Treasury flows that supported select assets throughout 2025. According to Bitwise data, ETFs and treasuries purchased 744,417 bitcoin, valued near $75 billion. Hougan said this demand prevented sharper declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

He divided large-cap assets into three performance groups. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP declined between 10.3% and 19.9%. Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink fell between 36.9% and 46.2%. Meanwhile, Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot dropped between 61.9% and 74.7%. Hougan said institutional access largely determined these outcomes.

Historical Patterns and Current Market Conditions

Hougan said crypto winters typically last about 13 months. Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed a year later. It peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022. He argued the current cycle started earlier than assumed. Hougan said ETF inflows obscured retail weakness until late 2025.

Despite market stress, Hougan said regulatory progress, stablecoin growth, and tokenization continue. He said those developments remain unchanged during the downturn. Hougan added that similar conditions marked prior cycle lows, including widespread pessimism and low risk appetite.