Monetary Policy

Gate News reports that on March 6th, Federal Reserve Board Member Milan expressed his views on interest rate policy, stating that the neutral interest rate is approximately 2.5% to 2.75%. Milan pointed out that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates this month, he will oppose it, believing that the Fed should lower rates to the neutral level and then reassess the policy direction.

Gate News Report, March 6 - Federal Reserve Board Member Michelle Bowman stated that the Federal Reserve generally does not respond to oil prices. She pointed out that if there is any impact, oil price fluctuations tend to push the Fed toward a more dovish policy stance, as oil shocks could dampen core inflation by hurting demand.

Gate News Report, on March 6th, Federal Reserve official Goolsby stated that rate cuts could begin before the end of this year. He pointed out that the timing for taking prudent action has been continuously delayed.

Gate News Report, March 6 — Schroders Global Chief Economist David Rees commented on the U.S. non-farm payroll data. Rees pointed out that the non-farm employment figures were significantly below expectations, providing a basis for dovish discussions within the Federal Reserve. He stated that at least part of the deviation below expectations was due to strikes in the healthcare industry, which are expected to be reversed. Additionally, despite the soft employment report, the continued growth in labor demand persists amid the ongoing strong U.S. economic expansion. Rees mentioned that Kevin Woor, who is about to become the Federal Reserve Chair, previously expressed the view that the application of artificial intelligence would greatly enhance U.S. productivity and create room for rate cuts. However, he also noted that the recovery of the labor market and inflation risks from Middle Eastern events would weaken the need for rate cuts in the short term.

Carson Group analyst Sonu Varghese stated that despite poor employment data in February, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year remain unchanged, and risks in the labor market still exist. Meanwhile, energy prices and artificial intelligence bottlenecks will keep the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts, and the market may only expect one rate cut.

Gate News Announcement, March 6 — Annex Wealth Management Chief Economist Brian Jacobsen stated that the latest non-farm employment data deviates from expectations, with the unemployment rate rising and oil prices surging. The Federal Reserve is currently facing policy choices: whether to take measures to support the labor market or to maintain the current stance to curb inflation expectations.

Goldman Sachs Multi-Asset Fixed Income Investment Director Lindsay Rosner stated that the Federal Reserve should be cautious about delaying interest rate cuts in the face of a weak labor market. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict influences policy directions, and the complex interplay between inflation and U.S. employment makes the timing of rate cuts uncertain. Goldman Sachs expects to complete two rate cuts to return to a neutral interest rate.

Gate News Report: On March 6, traders increased their bets, expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least once by 2026.

Following the disappointing employment report, U.S. Treasury yields declined as the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.1%, and the 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.53%. Interest rate swaps indicate that traders expect a total of 44 basis points of rate cuts by December.

From 13:45 to 14:00 on March 6, 2026 (UTC), ETH experienced a significant fluctuation, with a short-term decline of 1.53%. The price fluctuated sharply between 2019.21 and 2051.26 USDT, with an amplitude of 1.56%. High-frequency sell orders surged, market attention spiked, trading volume increased, and the divergence between bulls and bears intensified. Market sentiment became more cautious. The main driving force behind this fluctuation was large investors and whale accounts reducing their positions after a short-term rebound, leading to a rapid release of large sell orders and triggering short-term selling pressure in the market. On the ETF front, holdings

Natixis analyst Hodge pointed out that weak February employment data could influence Federal Reserve Waller's stance, reinforcing dovish views. Analyst Anstey believes this is a blow to Treasury Secretary Yellen, who had previously seen employment growth in the construction industry as a success model, but recent data shows declines in both construction and manufacturing employment.

Gate News Report: On March 6, U.S. non-farm payrolls for February recorded a decline, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. Federal Reserve officials, including Daly, stated that data from any single month is not decisive; employment data is not a clear signal, but it is also not an incorrect signal.

Gate News Report, March 6 — Traders now estimate that the probability of the Federal Reserve (U.S. Federal Reserve System) cutting interest rates in June has risen to about 50%, up from 35% before the employment data was released.

Gate News Report, March 6, Analyst Chris Anstey stated that this week's non-farm payroll data could prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider resuming interest rate cuts. He pointed out that the current employment market conditions do not align with the "stabilizing" state described by many Federal Reserve officials earlier.

TD Cowen指出，随着某 crypto company gaining access to the Federal Reserve's core payment system, more crypto companies are expected to obtain this permission this year. The company was designated as a "limited-use" account, and despite facing opposition and lawsuits from the banking industry, the Federal Reserve's approval process will continue to move forward.

Gate News Report, March 6 — Today, CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data shows: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 2.7%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 97.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by April is 12.5%, with an 87.3% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.3% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 30.7%.

The tense situation in the Middle East has triggered a strengthening of the US dollar, putting pressure on Bitcoin and high-risk assets. Analysis indicates that the appreciation of the dollar and high inflation may limit capital inflows into the crypto market. Although Bitcoin experienced a brief rebound, it still faces institutional sell-offs and market weakness. Investors should monitor the dollar trend and market dynamics to assess potential risks.

The Federal Reserve recently issued guidance, treating tokenized securities the same as traditional securities, removing regulatory barriers, and supporting financial institutions in exploring blockchain asset management. This policy provides a clear direction for tokenized finance and may lead to a large transfer of assets to blockchain, achieving efficient settlement and increased liquidity.

The Bank of Canada announced the test results of the "Samara Project," successfully issuing and managing 100 million CAD worth of tokenized government bonds through blockchain technology. The project applied distributed ledger technology in bond issuance, trading, and settlement, enhancing transparency and efficiency. Regulatory authorities remain cautious, believing that infrastructure and regulatory issues still need to be addressed. This pilot demonstrates the potential of blockchain in the financial sector.

On March 6th, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse supported Trump's tough stance on the "Clarity Act," calling on the U.S. Congress to push for the bill to clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets. Currently, due to disputes over stablecoin yield models, the bill is stalled in the Senate, affecting market sentiment.