Geopolitics

Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump held a phone call on March 9th, lasting about an hour. The two sides had a pragmatic exchange on Iran, the Ukraine situation, and Venezuela affairs, and expressed hope to maintain regular communication.

Gate News Report, March 9th, U.S. President Trump stated that he believes the Iran war is already very thorough and almost over.

The digital asset market showed a strange kind of calm last week, not reckless, not euphoric, just strangely stubborn. According to CoinShares, investment products tied to cryptocurrencies pulled in a net US$619 million, a sign that, even amid geopolitical jitters tied to Iran, a meaningful chunk of

Macro strategist Mark Connors stated that if the conflict between the US and Iran continues, increased fiscal spending and debt expansion could benefit Bitcoin. He pointed out that war financing will increase the supply of US dollars, weaken the currency's value, and drive Bitcoin higher. Since the conflict began, Bitcoin has risen approximately 3.6%.

Gate News Announcement: On March 9, U.S. President Trump stated that he will hold a press conference around 5:30 PM Eastern Time on March 10.

U.S. President Trump will review plans to curb oil prices on March 10, as oil prices have already exceeded $100 due to the Iran conflict. The White House is concerned that high oil prices could harm the economy, especially on the eve of the elections. Meanwhile, officials are discussing measures such as jointly releasing strategic reserve crude oil with the G7. Analysis indicates that ongoing conflict will limit the impact of policies on the global oil market.

Gate News Report, March 9th, Refinitiv data shows that bets in the inflation swap market reflect traders' expectations that consumer inflation in the United States will accelerate to about 3% over the next 12 months, up from approximately 2.4% at the end of February. Market analysis suggests that inflation concerns are mainly focused on the short term, related to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Expectations for the 12-month inflation rate starting one year from now are more moderate, remaining around 2.4%.

Gate News Report, March 9th, Russian President Putin stated that oil production related to the Strait of Hormuz could potentially come to a complete halt as early as next month. Putin pointed out that logistics will shift to more profitable markets, and Russian companies need to capitalize on the current situation. Additionally, Putin mentioned that the increase in global natural gas prices has exceeded that of oil.

This week will release the US February CPI and unemployment data, as well as the January PCE Price Index. Meanwhile, US and Israeli military actions may impact oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. The implied volatility of major maturities has risen significantly, with BTC short-term IV exceeding 65%, ETH short-term IV exceeding 80%, and the skew indicator declining.

Gate News Report, March 9th, U.S. President Trump commented on the issue of sending troops to Iran, stating that it is currently "far from" the point of deploying troops to Iran.

Gate News Report, March 9 — G7 officials stated that a broad consensus was reached at the G7 finance ministers' meeting on Monday to temporarily hold back from releasing oil reserves.

Gate News Report, March 9th, U.S. President Trump commented on the issue of deploying troops to Iran, stating that the current situation is "far from" requiring the deployment of troops to Iran.

Gate News Report, March 9, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani stated that considering the flames of war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region, the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to achieve any security.

Gate News Report, March 9 — International investment bank Macquarie issued a market warning that if the Strait of Hormuz (one of the world's most important oil transit routes) remains closed for several weeks, Brent crude oil prices could surge above $150 due to production stoppages and transportation restrictions.

Gate News Report, March 9 — The French Minister of Finance announced that France is prepared to use its strategic petroleum reserves (national emergency energy reserves) to stabilize the market. G7 finance ministers stated they are ready to take all necessary measures to address market volatility, but no consensus has been reached yet on releasing strategic petroleum reserves. Following the announcement, international oil prices surged briefly, with WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) currently at $103.6 per barrel and Brent crude oil at $101.8 per barrel.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio reiterated the superiority of gold, expressing skepticism about Bitcoin and pointing out issues such as the lack of central bank backing. Nevertheless, the market reaction was not as he expected; gold plummeted significantly, while Bitcoin remained relatively stable and even increased slightly, indicating a decoupling of their price movements. Dalio's view on cryptocurrencies is not entirely bearish; he still holds a small amount of Bitcoin for diversification purposes.

Washington’s long-running fight over crypto market structure is entering another high-stakes stretch, with lawmakers eyeing a late-March markup even as fresh opposition from the banking lobby threatens to stall the deal again. Industry reports say negotiators have been trying to clear procedural an

Gate News Report, March 9th, French President Macron stated that a convoy fleet is being assembled to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Macron said that once the most intense phase of the war ends, escort missions can begin.

Iran's "shadow economy" has become the last line of defense against U.S. sanctions through Bitcoin mining and stablecoin trading. After legalizing mining in 2019, Iran utilized cheap electricity for mining and sold the mined Bitcoin to the central bank for trade settlement purposes. Although the rial has depreciated significantly, stablecoins like USDT are used to stabilize exchange rates. As the financial crisis worsens, the public has also turned to Bitcoin to protect their assets.