The United States will release the key data for December PCE and Q4 GDP tonight.

Oil prices exceed $100! Trump calls for negotiations nearing the end "to seize Iranian oil," analysts warn: Bitcoin may dip to a bottom of $46,000.

Oil prices broke above $100 on Monday due to a sharp rise in geopolitical risks, especially Trump's tough rhetoric towards Iran. Crypto analyst Willy Woo warned that Bitcoin's on-chain capital outflow may fall to between $46,000 and $54,000. If the global macro market structure breaks down, the crypto market faces a deeper bear market risk. Trump's negotiation moves and the strategic importance of Hark Island have heightened market uncertainty and affected global oil prices and asset liquidity.

Non-Farm Payroll Preview: The Fed's Rate Cut Dream Shattered, Middle Eastern Conflict Rewriting the Global Interest Rate Script

The U.S. non-farm payroll report for March is about to be released, with the market expecting an increase of around 48,000 jobs. The ongoing conflict in Iran continues to impact oil prices and inflation, pushing the market's expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes. Analysts point out that strong non-farm data could further solidify the consensus on high interest rates, affecting the performance of risk assets.

Trump TACO trading encounters bottlenecks, Iranian speaker teaches traders reverse operations.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf questioned Trump's trading strategy TACO and suggested taking a reverse approach. The article analyzes the reasons for TACO's failure in the Iranian crisis, including the different nature of the opponents, the absence of the Supreme Leader, and the rising geopolitical risks, which have led to a decline in market confidence. Additionally, Ghalibaf also threatened that institutions purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds are "legitimate military targets," posing a new threat to the bond market.

Markets move to price in rate hikes as inflation fears and geopolitics reshape Fed expectations

The essay discusses a significant shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, with probability favoring rate hikes instead of cuts. This change is attributed to rising inflation fears linked to energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Additionally, while Bitcoin has held steady, it remains underperforming compared to other assets like gold and stocks.

“BTC OG Insider Whale” agent: The Easter weekend may be a window to escalate U.S.-Iran conflict; crude oil could break above $120 per barrel

The article analyzes the potential global economic impact of the upcoming conflict between the U.S. and Iran, particularly on the energy market and the debt market. It is expected that during Easter weekend, the U.S. may take action, such as going to war, which would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil prices, and a significant contraction in the global bond market. The Federal Reserve, facing the triple pressures of inflation, a banking crisis, and war financing, may adopt a "financial repression" strategy to lower real interest rates. Ultimately, the risks in the bond market are considered a greater hidden danger.

Trump Media War Strategy Loses Control Amid Shifting Market Dynamics

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump's media-driven strategy is losing influence over the markets, as investors now prioritize economic fundamentals over political messaging. This shift indicates a more stable and mature investor attitude amid ongoing volatility.