The Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion into the U.S. banking system this week, marking the fourth-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Markets move to price in rate hikes as inflation fears and geopolitics reshape Fed expectations

The essay discusses a significant shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, with probability favoring rate hikes instead of cuts. This change is attributed to rising inflation fears linked to energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Additionally, while Bitcoin has held steady, it remains underperforming compared to other assets like gold and stocks.

“BTC OG Insider Whale” agent: The Easter weekend may be a window to escalate U.S.-Iran conflict; crude oil could break above $120 per barrel

The article analyzes the potential global economic impact of the upcoming conflict between the U.S. and Iran, particularly on the energy market and the debt market. It is expected that during Easter weekend, the U.S. may take action, such as going to war, which would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil prices, and a significant contraction in the global bond market. The Federal Reserve, facing the triple pressures of inflation, a banking crisis, and war financing, may adopt a "financial repression" strategy to lower real interest rates. Ultimately, the risks in the bond market are considered a greater hidden danger.

The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April has dropped to 4.1%.

BlockBeats news, on March 29, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April has decreased to 4.1% (which had briefly risen to 12.4% on March 23), while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95.9%.

Bitcoin ETF ends seven consecutive days of gains, Bitcoin price pressure reappears.

Recently, after a continuous net inflow into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF for seven trading days, a significant outflow occurred, with a net outflow of $163.5 million on the 18th and another outflow of $51.9 million on the 19th, indicating a simultaneous weakening of market funds and prices. Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $70,000, highlighting that the fund flows from the ETF can no longer support its rebound, and the deteriorating macro environment is putting pressure on risk assets, leading to a noticeable contraction in investor preferences. The testing of the $70,000 level has become a barometer for short-term market sentiment.

Latest on the US-Iran War: Pentagon ground forces prepare to attack, Saudi military base hit by missiles, probability of Strait of Hormuz reopening is down to 24%.

The U.S.-Iran war is escalating, with U.S. forces at a base in Saudi Arabia being attacked by Iran, resulting in at least 15 injuries. The Pentagon is drafting operational plans for ground troops, focusing on Iran's nuclear weapons. The Strait of Hormuz has become a diplomatic toll station, allowing only friendly countries to pass, and the crypto market is also under pressure due to the war.

Why bitcoin's 'compressed' valuation offers reduced downside risk versus stocks

Bitwise suggests Bitcoin has priced in tighter monetary policy impacts, while stocks remain vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. Rising energy prices pressure inflation, affecting Fed rate cut expectations. Bitcoin, already adjusting to risk appetites, shows resilience compared to falling equities.