Bitcoin Could Hit New High in 2026 and $1 Million in 10 Years, Says Bitwise

Bitcoin could hit a fresh all-time high in 2026 as institutional participation deepens and traditional market cycles fade in influence, according to executives at crypto asset manager Bitwise.

Key Points

• Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in 2026 and $1 million over the next decade.
• Traditional four-year halving cycles are losing influence on Bitcoin price trends.
• Institutional capital inflows could reach tens of billions in 2026.
• ETF and brokerage access expands Bitcoin demand, reducing post-halving price slumps.
• Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased over the past decade and is now lower than that of several major stocks.
• Correlation with U.S. equities is weakening; Bitcoin may act as a distinct portfolio asset.

Bitwise Calls 2026 a Turning Point

These remarks build on a Bitwise client report focused on 2026. In that analysis, the firm urged investors to prepare for a market that differs sharply from previous Bitcoin cycles. According to Bitwise, the asset is maturing just as large financial players increase their exposure.

As part of this shift, Bitwise said the long-observed four-year Bitcoin cycle is gradually breaking down. The firm argued that price behavior is becoming less dependent on predictable supply events and more influenced by broader market structure.

Why the Four-Year Cycle Is Losing Influence

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expanded on this view in written commentary, saying the forces that once drove Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycles have weakened over time. While halvings, interest rate movements, and leverage-fueled rallies previously played central roles, their impact has diminished as the market has grown more sophisticated.

The Bitcoin halving, which reduces new supply by cutting miner rewards in half, once shaped price trends almost mechanically However, Bitwise now believes its influence is fading. The firm also cited expectations of lower interest rates and reduced leverage following widespread crypto liquidations in late 2025.

At the same time, access to Bitcoin has widened significantly. Hougan noted that inflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, combined with easier access through major brokerage platforms, are changing demand dynamics. He said these forces could support prices into 2026 rather than lead to a typical post-halving slump.

Hougan also challenged the perception of Bitcoin as an unusually volatile asset. He noted that Bitcoin experienced less volatility than Nvidia shares during 2025. He also highlighted that price swings have steadily declined over the past decade, as the expansion of ETF ownership broadened the investor base.

Correlation With Stocks Expected to Weaken

Bitwise also expects Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities to weaken over time. Hougan said crypto-specific factors, such as regulatory progress, broader adoption, and continued product innovation, are likely to play a larger role in shaping price movements.

Consequently, the firm believes Bitcoin could increasingly function as a distinct portfolio asset. Bitwise estimates that tens of billions of dollars in institutional capital could flow into the market during 2026.

Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Optimism

This bullish outlook comes amid ongoing market stress. Bitcoin recently fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $78,340, down 11% over the past week. The cryptocurrency is also roughly 38% below the peak of $126,080, reached on October 6, 2025.

Despite the current selling pressure, Bitwise maintains that structural shifts in market participation and access could set the stage for a stronger phase ahead.