Probabilities & practical outlook
Short term (days–weeks): Cautious bullish — market likely to extend modest gains if Fed expectations hold and ETF flows are net supportive. But expect volatility; intraday reversals are common.
Medium term (months): Conditional upside — if institutional adoption (ETFs, custody) continues and macro liquidity improves, structural demand could sustain a multi-month bull leg; conversely, a macro shock or ETF outflow streak would knock prices back quickly.
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Market structure & risks
Concentration risk: ETF flows can concentrate price moves — a single large product or institutional rebalancing day can swing liquidity and amplify volatility.
Regulatory & index decisions: Corporate/index events (e.g., potential index inclusions/exclusions for big holders) and regulatory headlines still move the market sharply; watch institutional headline events.
Fragile sentiment: Despite recent rallies, traders remain sensitive to macro prints, ETF flow reversals, and short-term on-chain/leverage signals — so rebounds can be fragile.
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Always treat crypto like very high risk. Even strong fundamentals don’t assure price pop.
“Undervalued” in crypto means: good tech + use case + network effects + low market awareness/valuation. But it also demands: tokenomics aligned, demand grows, supply isn’t overwhelming, competition manageable.
Diversification matters: you might pick one stronger “safer” infrastructure name (e.g., LINK) + one higher‐risk “underdog” (e.g. ALGO) rather than go all in one.
Timeline: crypto cycles tend to have momentum phases (bull runs). If you believe we’re entering one, undervalued assets could rally hard.

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