- Worst-case scenario for Bitcoin and theoretical drop to $16,000
- High probability window for Bitcoin bottom named by CryptoQuant
Crypto trader and entrepreneur Willy Woo has published a tweet to comment on the current crypto market situation. He also shared his take on when the current bear market is likely to end, laying out a potential worst-case scenario and where it may push Bitcoin should it indeed happen.
His forecast about the end of the bear market coincides with the analysis shared by CryptoQuant today.
Worst-case scenario for Bitcoin and theoretical drop to $16,000
The good news is that Willy Woo believes that the selling streak by Bitcoin investors is fading out. This means, he explains, that from here on, Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways for approximately a month. A rebound to the mid-$70,000s may take place, but it would “likely be rejected,” he believes.
HOT Stories
XRP-Friendly SBI to Launch Japan Stablecoin in Q2, Ethereum May ‘Flip’ Bitcoin in Five Years Amid Quantum Threat, Cardano’s USDC Eyes Two-Day Deadline: Morning Crypto Report
Critical XRP Ledger Bug in Batch Amendment Could Have Drained User Wallets
The key reason for this, per Woo, is that “the broader regime is heavily bearish,” meaning that liquidity is draining from both the spot and futures crypto markets. Bitcoin is unlikely to rally “when both sources of liquidity are bearish,” Woo stated. He attached a chart of the Bitcoin Flow Model to his tweet.
Woo offered the community “an educated guess,” saying that the fourth quarter of this year would be a perfect time for the bearish trend to end. As for the potential return of bullish momentum, that is likely in the first or the second quarter of 2027, according to him. But before it happens, Bitcoin could reach a “typical bear market bottom” of roughly $45,000 by Q4 this year.
Woo also viewed a potential, but perhaps not too likely, worst-case scenario that could happen to the world’s flagship cryptocurrency. If the broader global macroeconomic environment undergoes any significant negative changes, Bitcoin might collapse as low as to find support at the $16,000 level per coin.
High probability window for Bitcoin bottom named by CryptoQuant
On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant has used the historical data from the three previous Bitcoin halvings (in 2012, 2016 and 2020) in an attempt to figure out when the Bitcoin price may reverse after the 2024 April halving.
There are three options, and they point at June, September and October 2026, respectively, as a period when BTC may reach a bottom and begin rising again. This is 777-925 days post-halving historically.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
StarkWare researchers propose a QSB proposal, allowing Bitcoin to achieve post-quantum security without changing the protocol
StarkWare researchers proposed a quantum-safe Bitcoin scheme called QSB, aiming to replace the elliptic curve mechanism with hash assumptions to counter the threats posed by Shor’s algorithm. The scheme can run within existing scripts, requires no consensus changes, but does require submitting a transaction to a specific service.
GateNews34m ago
Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF had its first day of trading set a record for the firm, with more crypto products in the works
Gate News message, on April 10, the head of digital assets at Morgan Stanley said that the bank’s newly launched Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund) delivered the best first-day trading performance among all the bank’s ETF products. In addition, the executive disclosed that Morgan Stanley is preparing additional crypto-related products.
GateNews37m ago
A giant whale opened a heavy short position on BTC last night and was liquidated in two rounds, with a total scale exceeding $43.3 million
On April 10, after BTC reached $72k, a whale starting with 0x2fc liquidated twice in a row at 40x leverage, totaling 423.4 BTC, or about $30.5 million. Due to a liquidation loss of $580k, the address opened a short position again and was liquidated again; it can currently support 67 short positions, with a liquidation price of $72,669.
GateNews45m ago
BTC 15-minute surge up 0.60%: whale transfers and ETF fund flows converge to drive a short-term rebound
2026-04-10 01:30 to 2026-04-10 01:45 (UTC), the BTC price rose from 71863.2 USDT to 72383.6 USDT. Within 15 minutes, the return was +0.60%, and the range reached 0.72%. During this period, market volatility was significant: spot buying orders on major exchanges were active in the short term, attention quickly heated up, and it showed a rapid price response driven by capital inflows.
The main driver behind this anomaly is that whale wallets, in early April, coordinated concentrated short-term transfers to trading platforms totaling 42,000 BTC, for this year’s
GateNews1h ago
The CIA plans to embed AI into all analytical platforms to assist with intelligence analysis and counterintelligence work
The U.S. CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis said the CIA will incorporate AI into its analytical platforms over the next few years, but humans will still be the decision-makers. He mentioned a dispute with Anthropic and emphasized that competition between the U.S. and China in technology innovation is intensifying. AI and blockchain analytics will be key areas.
GateNews1h ago
Giant whale “sets 10 big targets first” — the BTC short position is currently down by $650k, and the ETH short position is currently up by more than $410k
A giant whale updated its position status. It currently holds 2,201.507 BTC short contracts, showing an unrealized loss of $650k; it also holds 7,093 ETH short contracts, showing an unrealized gain of $413k; the total value of its short contracts of $173 million currently has an estimated net unrealized loss of about $237k.
GateNews1h ago
