Bitcoin Faces Pressure — Could China’s Treasury Moves Trigger a 50% Drop?

• Macro Pressure: China’s Treasury reductions and de-dollarization add stress to the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin.

• Technical Signals: BTC/XAU ratio breaks key support, suggesting Bitcoin may be far from a bottom.

• Market Sentiment: Minimal dip-buying and cautious positioning indicate potential for a 50% Bitcoin decline.

Bitcoin — BTC, is showing signs of strain as investors wrestle with rising market fear. The crypto market has shed over $1 trillion in less than a month, forcing traders to rethink positions. Despite the sell-off, dip-buying remains minimal, highlighting cautious sentiment. Geopolitical factors are adding to the pressure, particularly China’s recent actions on U.S. Treasury holdings. Analysts are questioning whether Bitcoin’s $70k mark represents a top rather than a bottom in this cycle.

The data shows Bitcoin still has room to move lower.

Every major cycle correction follows the same pattern: compression first, then the true downside is revealed over time.

The key question now is depth and duration.

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— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) February 10, 2026

Macro Shifts and Dollar Pressure

China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings to $682 billion, the lowest in 18 years. In 2025 alone, the country sold roughly 11 percent of its holdings. Beijing has instructed banks to cut Treasury exposure, signaling a push toward de-dollarization. This move has amplified pressure on the U.S. dollar, which has already declined 1.4 percent after finishing 2025 down 9.4 percent.Historically, a weaker dollar has supported Bitcoin bull cycles. However, the 2025 cycle diverged from this pattern. Bitcoin fell by 6.3 percent while the U.S. dollar dropped by 9.4 percent.

At the same time, gold rose 65 percent, pushing the BTC/XAU ratio down 44 percent. This ratio is now at its lowest level since the 2022 bear market. The divergence shows that Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal may be weakening under macro pressure.

Rising yields on U.S. debt, triggered by China’s Treasury moves, add another layer of stress. For investors, this means heightened caution, while governments see increased borrowing costs. Bitcoin now faces the challenge of maintaining support amid declining macro confidence. Analysts warn that current positioning and FUD may point to more downside ahead.

Technical and Market Signals

The BTC/XAU ratio recently closed below the 15.50 support level, historically associated with Bitcoin tops. This technical signal raises concern for bulls and traders who expected Bitcoin to hold as a safe-haven. In past cycles, breaks of this level coincided with sharp declines, suggesting that Bitcoin could be far from finding a bottom.

Investor behavior reflects this caution. Unlike previous years, market participants have shown minimal dip-buying during the recent slide. This signals that many are prioritizing risk management over chasing gains. Analysts note that the combination of weak technical support and macro uncertainty could expose Bitcoin to a 50 percent drop from current levels.

While some may argue that $70k is still achievable, the weight of global macro shifts, Treasury reductions, and declining safe-haven appeal complicates the outlook. Traders must monitor the BTC/XAU ratio, dollar strength, and Treasury market activity for clues. Until momentum stabilizes and macro risk eases, Bitcoin faces ongoing pressure, and further downside cannot be ruled out.