Why Quantum Computing Isn’t a Serious Risk for Bitcoin Yet: CoinShares

In brief

• CoinShares said quantum computing poses a theoretical risk to Bitcoin, but not an imminent one.
• Researchers estimate millions of qubits would be needed, far beyond today’s quantum machines.
• The firm also said any future response should favor gradual upgrades over aggressive protocol changes.

Quantum computing may not be as much of an immediate threat to Bitcoin as some have warned, and any real risk might still be years away. That’s according to a new research note from digital asset investment firm CoinShares, which argues that while Bitcoin’s cryptography is theoretically vulnerable to future quantum advances, current technology falls far short of posing a practical danger. “Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerability is not an immediate crisis but a foreseeable engineering consideration, with ample time for adaptation,​“ researchers at the firm wrote. 

Quantum attacks involve powerful quantum computers breaking cryptographic keys that secure Bitcoin or other blockchains, enabling attackers to derive private keys from public information. Such attacks that are aimed at Bitcoin are not imminent because breaking its core cryptography would require quantum machines far beyond anything that exists today, the researchers argue. Estimates cited by CoinShares suggest an attacker would need millions of qubits, which are orders of magnitude more than current systems, to crack a key within hours or days. Researchers estimate that even the most advanced quantum computers are 10 to 100,000 times too weak to pose a real-world threat, pushing meaningful risk into the 2030s or later.

Still, legacy addresses could be vulnerable over long timeframes, while attacking active transactions would require near-instant computations that remain far out of reach. CoinShares said the theoretical quantum risk to Bitcoin stems from algorithms that could eventually expose cryptographic keys or weaken hashing, but stressed that these threats are distant and narrowly scoped. The firm estimates that about 1.7 million BTC, or roughly 8% of supply, sit in legacy P2PK addresses with exposed public keys, while modern address types hide keys until coins are spent and cannot affect Bitcoin’s supply cap or proof-of-work. Even in an extreme scenario, CoinShares argued the market impact would be limited, with at most around 10,000 BTC realistically able to be compromised and sold suddenly. More aggressive fixes could secure the network earlier, but the firm warns they also carry risks, including software bugs, forced assumptions about dormant coins, and erosion of Bitcoin’s neutrality and trust, making gradual, voluntary migration the preferred path. The takeaway appears to be all about process. CoinShares said in its note that Bitcoin has clear upgrade paths if quantum threats materialize, allowing the network to adapt without disruption, and that the risk should be weighed against fundamentals rather than speculative worst-case scenarios.