XRP Phase 4 Eyes $21.5 Target Despite Market Struggles

XRP Phase 4 aims at a price of $21.5 despite the recent poor performance of the token. According to Chartist CW, there is a multi-year trend, which indicates that a new all-time high could be attained as the trend gains momentum.

XRP is still at Phase 4, although its price has been fluctuating recently. In 2024, the token surged past a symmetrical triangle of several years. As a post on X by The Crypto Basic says, Phase 4 started in July 2024.

XRP has since collapsed from the $3.4 high but remains within Phase 4. Specifically, after reaching $3.4, XRP corrected to $1.71 by April 2025 before recovering to $3.6 in July of that year. However, another correction has ensued, with XRP dropping to the current price of $1.91.…

— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) January 28, 2026

Source: Thecryptobasic

Having previously bounced off at $0.38 and then surged to $3.66 in July 2025, the price has since fallen to below $2. Retail buyers have been growing more bearish, but the market data still positions XRP inthe  Phase 4 framework.

Could History Repeat With $21.5 Breakthrough?

This target was described by chartist CW in recent commentary and plotted on a 3-week chart on X. The modern 4-phase design is a result of the June 2017 consolidation.

Phase1 XRP rose between June 2017 and January 2018, between $0.2476 and $3.31. Phase 2 caused a sudden retreat to $0.1140 in March 2020, after which the token returned to $1.96 in April 2021. Phase 3 rectified to $1.96 to $0.45 in June 2024. Phase 4 began in July 2024 based on that $0.45 floor.

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Momentum Shifts After Political Catalyst

Rebound momentum was established following the November 2024 American elections. XRP shattered its symmetrical triangle formation and doubled its value by January 2025, between 0.50 and 3.40. The price has since crumbled, but it remains in Phase 4. In April 2025, XRP was at 1.71, then shot back to 3.60 in July and back to 1.91.

CW names $21.5 as the goal of Phase 4. The Crypto Basic has reported on X that XRP reached the first take-profit at $3.40 in January 2025, and the token currently trades at a lower price.

Pattern Recognition Points To Massive Upside

XRP first needs to recover $3.40 before moving upwards. Historical evidence demonstrates that the initial target of Phase 4 is a reflection of the peak of Phase 1. The target of the previous cycle was approximately at $0.0614, which XRP hit in April of 2017, but increased to $0.3988 in May 2017, the highest point that corresponded to the Phase 4 target. CW anticipates this kind of behavior this time around.

The multi-year model indicates that there is still a lot of upside potential. Retail bearishness is the inverse of the technical indicator,s and Phase 4 is historically the most profitable.

The way to $21.5 is through breaking key resistance levels by XRP. The initial obstacle is the 3.40 mark; success at that level might cause the momentum to the final aim.

The dynamics of the market changed drastically after the November 2024 catalyst. The symmetrical triangle breakout was a structural change, and the price action since that point validates the Phase 4 pattern.

The target of 21.5 will reflect approximately 1,000% returns off current levels, which is in line with the historical performance of Phase 4. Past cycles portray similar percentage gains in the last stages.