Prediction Market

The team behind the P2P.me decentralized trading platform disclosed that it opened positions on the Polymarket prediction market related to its recent capital raise. The team opened the positions 10 days before the raise went live, wagering whether the project would hit its $6 million fundraising t

In brief ICE has invested another $600 million into Polymarket, fulfilling its commitment made in October. Rival Kalshi recently raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, outpacing Polymarket's current valuation. Prediction markets face mounting regulatory pressure, with lawmakers

Kalshi has received approval for margin trading, aiming to attract institutional investors. The license enables it to act as a futures commission merchant, pending CFTC approval. This shift could enhance trading potential in prediction markets, facing competition and regulatory challenges.

In brief California public officials are banned via executive order from using inside information to make money on prediction markets. The ban extends to state officials and appointees using information to help others from profiting, as well. The order follows continued scrutiny from

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), said Friday it completed a new $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket, deepening its bet on prediction markets as a new area of growth for exchange operators. The company also said it expects to

Energy analysts warn that if the Houthis launch renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping, the oil market will face greater turmoil, which could lead to global oil supply cuts and higher oil prices. Saudi Arabia is moving crude oil to Red Sea ports to reduce the impact, but if the attacks continue, output could be constrained and force Saudi Arabia and other countries to cut production.

On March 28, the Houthi armed forces launched missiles at Israel for the first time, claiming to target sensitive military facilities. Prediction platforms indicate that the likelihood of Israel attacking Yemen has risen to 60% before 2026. Analysts are concerned that if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, it will affect energy transportation from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.

Polymarket has reached a strategic partnership with Parti.com to launch a product that integrates real-time prediction markets into the live streaming experience. Streamers and viewers can directly discover and trade Polymarket's markets on Parti.com, while also launching the Earn Program, allowing creators to profit from viewer trades. Additionally, Boutique Culture Markets will be introduced to expand the prediction markets for cultural hotspot events.

California Governor Newsom has signed a decree prohibiting government officials from profiting in prediction markets using insider information. The statement pointed out that some officials made precise bets prior to military operations, earning hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars, which seriously affects fairness. This measure aims to curb the abuse of public service for private gain.

The recent developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict over the past week are escalating continuously. The U.S. 82nd Airborne Division has canceled its rotation at the "Joint Readiness Training Center," the 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade, which typically relies on sea transport, has used air transport instead, and the blood supply reserves at U.S. military bases in the Middle East have increased by 500%. The largest U.S. Department of Defense overseas hospital—Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany—has suspended some civilian services. The last time this combination of actions occurred was on the eve of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Just at this moment of heightened tension, Trump suddenly posted that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in "very, very good and productive dialogue" and announced that the U.S. would pause military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. In the early hours of March 27, Beijing time, Trump posted again that the pause would be extended until April 6. This objective fact contrasts with Trump's

Research shows that researchers from Columbia Law School and the University of Haifa analyzed trading data from the Polymarket platform and found over 210,000 suspicious transactions that generated $143 million in profits, which were defined as "informed" trades. The study used five criteria to filter out high-stakes betting accounts, primarily focused on the 2024 U.S. elections, Federal Reserve decisions, and sporting events. The research methodology has been questioned, with the authors admitting that biases may exist. Meanwhile, Polymarket has banned trading based on stolen information, but the collection of identity information is unclear.

The market for predicting future events has first exceeded the milestone of $20 billion in trading volume per month, amid a surge in activity driven by geopolitical factors and U.S. politics. According to a report from the company

Hey Anon launches Pandora, a decentralized AI-driven prediction market on Ethereum, empowering users to create transparent markets without central control. The platform features unique AI consensus mechanisms and aims to innovate the prediction market landscape.

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary homeland security funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, with funding lasting until May 22. However, the Senate is expected to reject it, potentially extending the shutdown. The probability of a related shutdown has significantly increased in market trading.

The Democratic Party is gaining an edge ahead of the 2028 U.S. presidential election, with a record 57% chance of winning. This shift comes amid declining support for the Republican Party, largely due to negative public reaction to U.S. military actions in Iran.

Intercontinental Exchange adds $600 million investment to Polymarket, bringing the total to $1.64 billion. Trump emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin, while Yilihua states the cryptocurrency market has performed poorly for four years. The U.S. plans to release a draft of stablecoin yield provisions, and Ripple's CEO says the CLARITY Act may be delayed until May. California bans public officials from trading on insider information. The crypto industry enters the "Shirt Era," with blockchain and AI integration driving development. Lido proposes to buy back LDO tokens, and Ripple and Stellar founders jointly invest $1 billion in AGI research.

The P2P.me team admits to placing bets on financing goals on Polymarket without timely disclosure of this action. The team will liquidate all related positions and return the profits, emphasizing that MetaDAO was unaware and plans to establish relevant policies.

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order prohibiting state-appointed officials from profiting in prediction markets using non-public information, emphasizing the maintenance of government integrity and public trust, and criticizing recent insider trading issues among internal personnel.

The team behind the P2P.me decentralized trading platform disclosed that it opened positions on the Polymarket prediction market related to its recent capital raise. The team opened the positions 10 days before the raise went live, wagering whether the project would hit its $6 million fundraising t

In brief ICE has invested another $600 million into Polymarket, fulfilling its commitment made in October. Rival Kalshi recently raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, outpacing Polymarket's current valuation. Prediction markets face mounting regulatory pressure, with lawmakers