Prediction Market

Binance is set to launch a prediction market feature, aggregating third-party platforms. Currently, it primarily uses Predict, enabling users to bet on various future outcomes across different sectors. Competitors like Coinbase have already entered this market.

Polymarket saw extreme price swings after a UFC event broadcast error, and a trader exploited an information timing gap to buy at a low price of $0.01; ultimately, they profited by 100x, with the value rising from $676 to $67,608. This incident has prompted the market to consider introducing a circuit breaker mechanism to control risk.

Gate News update. On March 31, Polymarket data shows that the probability that the market is betting on edgeX launching the next day FDV exceeding $300 million is 87%, exceeding $400 million is 62%, exceeding $500 million is 48%, and exceeding $600 million is 26%. As of now, trading volume on this prediction market is over $10 million.

At least 42 Democratic lawmakers have written the US commodities regulator and the US Office of Government Ethics, demanding that it warn federal employees not to use inside knowledge to trade in prediction markets. The letter, addressed to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig and

Hey Anon launches Pandora, a decentralized AI-driven prediction market on Ethereum, empowering users to create transparent markets without central control. The platform features unique AI consensus mechanisms and aims to innovate the prediction market landscape.

More than 40 U.S. Democratic lawmakers have urged strengthening insider-trading oversight for government employees engaged in trading on prediction markets, pointing to multiple suspicious cases showing abnormal betting behavior. In the letter, they call on the CFTC and OGE to issue guidance to ensure compliance with existing laws. This move is also linked to efforts to advance legislation related to digital-asset regulation, emphasizing synchronized progress between regulatory oversight and judicial review.

The U.S. National Football League (NFL) requires prediction market platforms to stop offering contracts that are susceptible to manipulation, and emphasizes that the relevant contracts lack randomness, which could constitute insider trading. The chairman of the CFTC said he will respect the views of each league and that the regulatory landscape may change. In addition, the NFL and MLB have taken different strategies—one confrontational and the other cooperative—when facing prediction markets, reflecting different ways professional sports organizations think about regulation.

A certain CEX released trading data from March 1 to March 27, 2026: stock notional trading volume of $196 billion, 187 million options contracts, $16 billion in cryptocurrencies, and more. Complete data will be included in the Q1 2026 earnings report.

In a prediction for the NBA regular season game between the 76ers and the Heat, an account placed a $247,000 bet on a 76ers win, but is currently down $32,000. Even though the 76ers have gotten key players back, they’re still trailing in the game.

Gate News message. On March 31, in Polymarket's "NBA regular season Spurs vs Bulls" prediction event, an account (address: 0x05f6027ceb5b8db472bb716d3ed574c199118cec) with a win rate over 78% purchased a $240,000 bet on the Spurs to beat the Bulls; the opening price was $0.95. The NBA regular season Spurs vs Bulls game kicks off at 8:00 AM Beijing time today. Currently, the NBA regular season is in its final stretch; the Spurs record is 56 wins and 18 losses, ranking 2nd in the Western Conference; the Bulls record is 29 wins and 45 losses, ranking 12th in the Eastern Conference.

It could be more than a year before Bitcoin regains its all-time high of $126,100, recorded in October last year, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. “I do not see a new price high in 2026,” Brandt told Cointelegraph. “Not until maybe the second quarter of 2027,” he said, though he also

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will consider the views of the sports leagues to assess the risks of predictive market contracts. The National Football League (NFL) requires the platform to tighten trading rules to prevent contracts that could be manipulated from being listed, in order to protect the fairness of the games. The CFTC Chair said the league has unique expertise in identifying manipulation risks.

Over 40 Democrats urged the CFTC and ethics officials to clarify that insider trading laws apply to prediction markets, following suspicions of government officials profiting from leaked information. They seek guidance to prevent such trades amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

In brief ICE has invested another $600 million into Polymarket, fulfilling its commitment made in October. Rival Kalshi recently raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, outpacing Polymarket's current valuation. Prediction markets face mounting regulatory pressure, with lawmakers

In brief California public officials are banned via executive order from using inside information to make money on prediction markets. The ban extends to state officials and appointees using information to help others from profiting, as well. The order follows continued scrutiny from

OmenX announces the completion of a multi-million-dollar seed round, with participation from multiple institutions. The platform turns real-world events into tradable markets, introducing a leveraged perpetual futures contract mechanism to improve capital efficiency and risk hedging capabilities. The testnet is already live—users can participate in the points system to test platform features, in preparation for the mainnet launch.

Prediction markets are experiencing significant growth, with transaction counts rising over 2,800% and trading volumes reaching $23.9 billion in March. Increased mainstream exposure and interest in political and geopolitical events are driving this trend.