Betting on Polymarket that Khamenei will step down before March 31, probability soars to 93%

Bitcoin Breaks Through $72,000: The Iran–Israel ceasefire boosts risk assets, with $427 million in short positions liquidated, but Polymarket shows disagreement on end-of-year outlook

Bitcoin broke through $72,000 on April 10, mainly due to a fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran that boosted market risk appetite, with funds flowing from safe-haven assets into Bitcoin. Increased institutional inflows and a rebound in Large Investors’ holdings are driving the price higher. Technical analysis shows that the main resistance lies in the $72,200 to $73,500 range. Despite a bullish outlook in the short term, there is still disagreement over forecasts for Bitcoin’s price by year-end, and the risk of a pullback also needs to be watched.

Bank of America report: Kalshi controls 89% of prediction markets, regulatory advantage leads the competition

A Bank of America report says that prediction markets are expected to see trading volume grow this week, with Kalshi growing 6% under CFTC regulation and accounting for 89% market share. By contrast, Polymarket saw its trading volume fall 16% due to compliance restrictions. Legal disputes between the CFTC and various states will affect the future direction of prediction markets and may reshape the market’s competitive landscape. Major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance are accelerating entry into this space, further driving prediction markets to become a mainstream financial product.

Insider Trading Suspicion! The White House Bans Staff From Participating in Prediction Market Betting

The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.

Polymarket「The probability that Taylor Swift will get married before the end of June」falls to 19%, down 45% over the past 24 hours

Polymarket’s odds prediction for Taylor Swift’s wedding have fallen to 19%, down 45% within 24 hours. The latest reports indicate the wedding will take place on July 3 in New York, rather than the June 13 date previously rumored.

On Polymarket, the predicted probability that OneFootball Club’s token FDV exceeds $50 million falls to 14%

Gate News, April 10, Polymarket prediction market data shows the probability of "OneFootball Club surpasses a $50 million FDV market cap after one day of opening" falling to 14%, with a 24-hour decline of 51%. Late yesterday afternoon (April 9), OneFootball Club announced on the X platform that its token OFC has officially gone live, with a current market cap of $45 million.

The White House warns employees not to use policy insider information to place bets on prediction markets

The White House warns staff not to use their positions to bet in prediction markets, especially by engaging in unusual trading activity before policies suddenly change. Accounts that have already profited more than $600k through prediction have drawn criticism, and critics suspect that someone used insider information to profit. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the warning.