XRP Faces Key Test at Daily Resistance Before Bullish Turn

XRP remains capped below resistance as futures positioning and whale distribution tilt short-term risks to the downside.

XRP’s market uncertainty persisted into another trading day after it closed the last session without a clear market direction. As spotted by on-chain observers, the coin is sitting below a key resistance zone. And as expected, this struggle has kept traders cautious. Although short-term charts indicate relative stability, downside risks remain visible.

XRP Stuck in Tight Range as $1.5160 Resistance Caps Price

As per market data, XRP is exchanging hands around $1.45 following a relatively flat market outing. Effectively, this places the coin below the $1.5160 daily resistance.

Looking at the XRP/BTC chart, the weekly price action closed slightly bearish but left a large lower wick. That structure points to demand stepping in at lower levels, reducing immediate downside pressure. Besides, selling interest appears less aggressive than earlier in the decline.

_Image Source: _X/CRYPTOWZRD

A weekly pin bar formed on the pair, a pattern often linked to potential upside. Oftentimes, such a signal suggests relative strength could emerge if follow-through develops. Even at that, confirmation is yet to be seen in the coin’s trend.

Further examination of the trend structure reveals that sellers are still holding the upper hand. Technically, XRP trades below a long-term descending trendline. And this has kept the broader downtrend intact.

Even though the asset has rebounded from the $1.30 support zone, higher levels remain unreclaimed. For now, a recovery remains elusive until the asset flips the $1.5160–$1.5300 level.

Market watchers CRYPTOWZRD noted that XRP is currently moving sideways. Typically, movement around this level indicates hesitation, as buyers have yet to demonstrate strength. Market participants appear focused on a clean breakout to define the next move. Essentially, the asset needs this trend flip for a defined short-term direction.

Buying interest could resume if the coin flips its current resistance to $1.516. More so, a sustained stay above $1.53 could flip the broader outlook bullish. In fact, analysts believe such a move could push prices even higher. However, XRP is likely to keep trading within a tight range until a possible trend triggers this upside move.

Traders Stay Defensive as Derivatives Imbalance Signals Downside Pressure

Liquidation data point to approximately $390 million on the short side. In comparison, long exposure stands at over $190 million. Usually, such an imbalance suggests that futures traders are betting on further downsides. At the moment, betting against a sustained bounce remains the dominant theme among traders.

_Image Source: _CoinGlass

Heavy short interest could raise volatility if the price slips again. Rather than cushioning declines, derivatives flows may amplify them. Price forecasts, therefore, carry uneven risk, with downside moves likely to accelerate faster than upside gains.

Unfortunately, on-chain data offers little reassurance over a potential trend flip. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP steadily shed their holdings since early February. Larger addresses, holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP, have also turned bearish over the past day. Distribution from these groups often precedes deeper price tests.

Support near current levels still holds, but time works against it. A drift toward $1.00 would raise the risk of cascading liquidations. For now, XRP remains above that threshold, though conviction from buyers has yet to appear. Market participants are now waiting for confirmation from both price and positioning data before committing to a new trend.