Bitcoin Struggles Below AVWAP and SMA50 as Post-Halving Trend Turns Bearish

• Bitcoin trades below key AVWAP and SMA50 levels, confirming seller dominance after rejection near the 97K–100K resistance zone.

• The first lower high formed as multiple averages clustered near 100K, signaling a structural shift from expansion to distribution.

• Short-term charts show corrective rebounds capped by Fibonacci resistance, with downside risk toward the 70.7K–72.6K demand zone.

Bitcoin price action since the last halving shows renewed weakness near $75,900–$76,400, key support levels. Sellers have continued to cap rallies around mid-range levels, keeping price action subdued in the short term.

Post-Halving Structure Shifts From Expansion to Distribution

Market observers noted on X that Bitcoin spent its early post-halving phase trading within the AVWAP bands anchored to the Fourth Halving. Price compression occurred while the weekly SMA50 maintained a positive slope, signaling controlled accumulation and steady buyer participation.

As volatility expanded, Bitcoin respected the upper AVWAP band as a guide for momentum moves. Each rally pushed the price farther from the original halving average, creating distance between value and traded levels.

Analysts referenced several moments where the upper band served as a practical zone for identifying short-term market tops. Support emerged near the original Fourth Halving AVWAP and the rising SMA50.

Price Action Since the Last Halving

“Currently, Bitcoin’s price has closed below the AVWAP anchored to the Fourth Halving (support), the SMA50, and the AVWAP anchored to the latest ATH, showing that sellers are dominating the market” – By @_onchain

⤵️https://t.co/a4EQxTD3LO

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 4, 2026

Buyers defended that region during pullbacks, allowing the trend to extend toward the all-time high. However, subsequent candles showed longer wicks and sharper rejections, indicating a transition toward distribution behavior.

Lower High Formation Signals Weakening Market Control

After the peak, Bitcoin closed below the weekly SMA50 and revisited the Fourth Halving AVWAP as support. A modest recovery followed, but the price stalled between 97,000 and 100,000.

This zone formed a clear resistance ceiling and produced the first lower high of the cycle. Technical clusters reinforced that ceiling. The UTXO Age Bands for 6–12 months, the SMA50, and the AVWAP anchored to the latest all-time high converged in the same range.

According to commentary shared on X, this confluence increased selling pressure and limited upside continuation.

Current price behavior shows Bitcoin trading below the Fourth Halving AVWAP, the downward-sloping SMA50, and the AVWAP anchored to the latest high. These failures point to seller dominance. Rallies are now viewed as corrective reactions rather than impulsive trend extensions.

BTC Funding Rates Flash a Short-Side Excess

“Historically, such phases have frequently preceded trend reversals, sometimes lasting, sometimes limited to the very short term.” – By @Darkfost_Coc

Get the full insight ⤵️https://t.co/Kq80orhLXe pic.twitter.com/in8qp03dpR

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 4, 2026

Short-Term Chart Shows Corrective Bounce Under Resistance

Below current trading levels, a demand zone between 70,700 and 72,600 aligns with extension targets near 138% and 161.8%. Chart annotations shared by traders on X suggest one more downside leg may complete the corrective structure.

A sustained move above 80,000 would be required to challenge this scenario. Bitcoin price action since the last halving now reflects a market adjusting after its expansion phase.

The loss of key averages and anchored VWAP support has shifted focus toward corrective patterns and resistance-based trading. Short-term direction remains defined by whether price can reclaim these levels or revisit lower demand zones.