XRP Has a 70% Chance to Close February in Green After Rare Monthly Losing Streak

XRP may be approaching a key turning point after recording four consecutive red monthly candles, a pattern that has not appeared in nearly eight years.

Notably, XRP closed January 2026 at $1.6455, after opening the month at a much higher level of $1.84. Starting February, XRP has already dipped further, reaching as low as $1.53, a price point last seen in October 2025.

XRP’s latest negative monthly close marks the fourth consecutive month it has closed lower than it opened. Meanwhile, historical data suggests the odds now favor a reversal rather than a continuation of losses.

Key Points

• XRP posts 4th red month in a row, a streak unseen since 2017.
• Historical data gives XRP a 70% chance to close February higher.
• Past cycles show long red streaks often precede a relief rally.
• XRP trades at $1.60, aiming to recover from its recent dip.

Rare Pattern Not Seen Since 2017

Based on past data, Bird said the probability of XRP closing a fifth straight red month sits at roughly 30%, implying a 70% chance that February breaks the streak and finishes higher.

History Favors XRP Bounce, Not More Selling

Previous cycles show that prolonged monthly weakness in XRP often signals seller exhaustion. Historically, after three or four consecutive months of losses, the following month often turns green.

For instance, in 2022, XRP closed April, May, and June with losses ranging from 21% to 28.4%, then posted 14.6% gains in July. Later that year, it recorded losses from October to December and posted 20% gains in January 2023.

In 2018, XRP posted losses of 26.9%, 23.8%, 6.77%, and 23% from May to August. By September, it surged 73%. The trend repeated later that year, with losses from October to January, followed by a 1.13% gain in February 2019.

XRP Historical ChartThe monthly chart highlights how extended red streaks have often aligned with accumulation phases preceding a relief rally.

Market Context Still Matters

While historical probabilities lean bullish, broader market conditions remain a key factor. Bitcoin’s direction, overall crypto sentiment, and liquidity trends could influence whether XRP follows its historical pattern or deviates from it.

Moreover, in 2015 and 2014, XRP recorded streaks of five and six consecutive monthly losses, respectively, before gains of 43.8% and 37.3%. This suggests that while there is optimism for a rebound in February, XRP’s price could still close the month in red.

XRP Historical ChartStill, the rarity of the current setup has drawn attention from traders who view February as a pivotal month for XRP’s medium-term direction.

For now, history suggests the odds favor a break in the losing streak and a potential shift in momentum for XRP. The coin is currently trading at $1.60, attempting to recover from the latest dip.