XRP Whale Exodus! Holdings evaporated by 8 billion, $1.90 defense line in jeopardy.

XRP price fell below the $1.90 mark, despite Spot ETF attracting $44 million in a single day on Monday, with a cumulative net inflow reaching $1.12 billion, it still couldn't stop the decline. The key issue lies in the Whale continuously reducing positions, with addresses holding over 100,000 Tokens seeing their value plummet from $191 billion in July to $104 billion, evaporating over $87 billion.

XRP Whale sold 87 billion dollars with a devastating impact over 5 months

(Source: Glassnode)

The core of the current predicament of XRP lies in the continuous reduce position of large holders. Glassnode data shows that the value of addresses holding more than 100,000 Tokens has steadily declined from about 191 billion USD on July 21 to 129 billion USD on October 10, and further dropped to 104 billion USD on Monday. This means that over the course of 5 months, the nominal value of Whale holdings has evaporated by 87 billion USD, with a fall of up to 45.5%.

This continuous and stable selling pattern is highly destructive. Unlike the panic selling of retail investors, whale reductions are usually well thought out, reflecting fundamental concerns about the underlying fundamentals or market structure. Even more worrying is the persistence of the sell-off, as positions have been reduced almost weekly since July, indicating that this is not a short-term profit-taking but a strategic withdrawal.

The chain reaction of Whale reducing positions is multifaceted. First, there is a direct supply and demand imbalance; when large holders continue to sell while new buying pressure is insufficient, prices are bound to come under pressure. Second, market confidence is shaken; retail investors often follow suit and sell when they see Whales exiting, creating a herd effect. Third, liquidity worsens; when major holders reduce their positions, market depth becomes shallower, leading to increased price volatility.

From a time perspective, XRP began to retreat after reaching a new high of $3.66 on July 22, with whales systematically reducing their positions near the peak. This operation indicates that professional investors lack confidence in XRP breaking through $4, choosing to cash out at relatively high levels. If whales continue to reduce their holdings, the upward pressure will continuously outweigh demand, causing the price of XRP to keep falling.

On-chain activity collapse 75% shows adoption crisis

(Source: Glassnode)

The on-chain data from the XRP Ledger reveals deeper issues. The number of new addresses created plummeted from about 13,500 on November 11 to 3,440 on Monday, a decrease of 75%. Even compared to 4,501 on December 1, it has dropped by 23.6%. This sharp decline in new addresses directly reflects the decreasing adoption rate of XRP on the protocol.

The number of new addresses is one of the core indicators of blockchain network health. Each new address represents a potential new user or use case; stagnation in address growth suggests that network effects are weakening. For XRP, this decline is particularly concerning, as Ripple has consistently emphasized its application potential in the cross-border payment space, yet on-chain data indicates that actual usage has not increased alongside price rises.

The low number of active addresses indicates that the demand base is shrinking. Unless the situation reverses and the number of new addresses increases again, XRP may find it difficult to maintain its recovery momentum in adversity. Even more concerning is that this decline occurs against the backdrop of continuous inflows into ETFs, indicating a serious decoupling between institutional demand and retail demand. Institutions are buying through ETFs, but ordinary users are leaving the XRP ecosystem.

This decoupling phenomenon reveals the structural challenges faced by XRP. ETF investors do not truly use the XRP network; they merely treat it as a speculative target. What can truly support long-term value are active users who actually use XRP for payments, remittances, or smart contracts. When the number of these users declines, the intrinsic value support of XRP will weaken.

ETF capital absorption ineffective, technical aspects completely collapsed

(Source: SoSoValue)

Despite the inflow of nearly $44 million into the XRP Spot ETF on Monday, up from about $13 million last Friday, with a cumulative net inflow of $1.12 billion and net assets reaching $1.25 billion, these impressive figures could not prevent the fall in XRP prices. This phenomenon of “good news not causing a rise but instead a fall” reveals the severity of the technical damage.

(Source: Trading View)

From the daily chart, XRP is currently trading at $1.87, with key support at last Friday's low of $1.77. If the closing price falls below this level, it may further decline to the April support level of $1.61, representing a 14% drop from the current price. A deeper support level is at $1.25, which is the low after the big dump on October 10, and touching this level would confirm a bearish trend.

The rebound path requires the daily closing price to break through the 50-day moving average of 2.12 USD, which will alleviate bearish pressure and open up upward space towards the 100-day moving average of 2.31 USD and the 200-day moving average of 2.40 USD. If the RSI simultaneously breaks above 50 into the bullish zone, it will enhance upward momentum. However, under the current on-chain data and Whale holding configuration, the probability of such a reversal is relatively low.

Market negative sentiment continues to dominate. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index remains in the fear zone, indicating overall market risk appetite is sluggish. If the MACD histogram falls into negative territory again, selling pressure may re-emerge, pushing XRP to test deeper support levels.

Three Major Technical Crash Signals

All three moving averages have been completely lost: XRP has fallen below the 50-day EMA ($2.12), 100-day EMA ($2.31), and 200-day EMA ($2.40), with bears fully in control.

RSI falls to 39 entering bearish territory: If it remains below 40, it may further drop to 30, just a step away from the oversold zone.

MACD Momentum Weak: Although it is slightly positive and the blue line remains above the red line, a turn to negative in the histogram will trigger a new round of sell-off.

Deep Warning of ETF Divergence from On-Chain Data

The current predicament of XRP reveals an important issue: institutional buying through ETF cannot compensate for the shrinkage of the on-chain ecosystem. The cumulative inflow of $1.12 billion into the ETF seems considerable, but without actual use cases to support it, this capital treats XRP merely as a speculative target rather than a long-term store of value. Once market sentiment turns, the withdrawal of institutional funds may occur faster than that of retail investors.

From the holder structure perspective, the reduction in Whale positions combined with the sharp decrease in new addresses indicates that XRP is losing users at both ends: large holders are choosing to exit, and new users are unwilling to enter. This dual pressure has trapped XRP in a liquidity trap, and only when Whales stop selling and new addresses begin to grow again can the price be expected to stabilize. Before that, any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity for high-position reduction.