The cryptocurrency market continues to remain under pressure, with Bitcoin recently oscillating around $87,000. Multiple analysts and derivatives market data simultaneously signal a bearish outlook. Some analysts warn that if Bitcoin drops to $10,000 during this cycle, mainstream altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Ripple (XRP) could face catastrophic consequences.
Recently, Bitcoin’s rebound momentum has noticeably weakened, with its price showing signs of a “short-lived rally followed by a rapid decline.” Against the backdrop of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin’s performance has begun to underperform traditional stock markets. On Wednesday evening, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $90,000 but quickly fell back below $87,000.
Derivatives market data indicates that traders are actively positioning defensively for further declines. A large volume of put options with an exercise price around $85,000 has been entering the market, especially around the December 26 expiration date. Derive.xyz notes that the 30-day implied volatility has risen to nearly 45%, and skew remains in the significantly negative zone, reflecting heightened market vigilance for downside risks. This bearish sentiment may persist into the first half of 2026.
Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Analyst at FxPro, states that the upward trend formed in late November has been broken, and the current market structure is closer to a deep correction phase. Defensive trading has notably increased.
Regarding Ethereum, short-term market sentiment remains cautious, with ongoing accumulation of put options near $2,500 expiring on December 26, indicating investor concerns about ETH’s short-term prospects.
From a long-term cycle perspective, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone warns that Bitcoin’s previous strong surge above $100,000 may be giving rise to a deeper cyclical correction, potentially dropping to the $10,000 range by 2026 in the most extreme case. He believes that highly speculative assets tend to undergo severe corrections after rapid wealth expansion.
On-chain data shows that short-term holders have been in a loss position for over a month, while long-term holders have been cumulatively reducing holdings since July, with an estimated paper loss of approximately 500,000 Bitcoins. Looking ahead, geopolitical risks, market leverage levels, and liquidity environments will be key variables influencing the direction of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. (CoinDesk)
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