being objective is a superpower

anyone looking at this chart and haphazardly bullposting, and then following that up with: "you're gonna miss out" is one slimy mf.
one does not simply "miss out" on multi-month, or multi-year trends.

it's not one decision that decides your fate forever. you made that up.

it's a sequence of decisions that lead to a conclusive result after a prolonged period of time.

simply get good enough to where you can rely on your abilities, instead of hopeful outcomes, and you'll see that markets are often incredibly kind to those that are objective.

that uptrend you're seeing is, often times, simply an uptrend.

that downtrend is, sometimes, simply a downtrend.

any overthinking in-between is likely the kickstart to spiraling.

storytime:

in Q1 of last year, I said: "I think this selloff is going to accelerate from here"

some cringefluencer replied and said: "any doomposter thinking we're going to accelerate the selloff from here is [REDACTED]. the selloff was already accelerated."

just before we got a more aggressive selloff than anything seen before in the past 2 years...

that even more exaggerated selloff allowed for a nice retest of a 14-year long trend, for 'generational' entries on a lot of assets:

and just a few weeks later, the market reclaimed all key trends once again; the at-face value assumption was simply "price discovery" - just like the past 14 years:
so even just a rudimentary thought-process proved to be greater 'alpha' than most macroeconomists

you navigate rallies and avoid major selloffs by being objective.

but in order to do that, you have to detach from fear.

there's no need to fear "what happens if we decide to run it back turbo, instead of downtrend?"

but only if, when the time comes, you'll refrain from thinking to yourself: "what if I'm buying the top, and this isn't actually an uptrend?" as many did throughout a 3-year bullmarket.

if you ever allow yourself to indulge in one fear, it's likely that you're susceptible to the other

but markets are not your greatest enemy; you are.

the only way to mitigate fear is to start relying on your abilities, instead of market outcomes; anything and everything is an opportunity, because you're a trader, and this is the market.

so no, your biggest fear should not be: "what happens if we run it back turbo on a 2-yr giga-bullmarket?"

what a garbage mindset to have. do better. you will be granted excessive opportunities once again if that happens, similar to the past 3 years. your poor soul has been torched and brain has been traumatized, allowing people that trade with $10 to heighten anxiety levels based on mere "what if's?" that may never come into fruition.

for every argument, there's a counterargument:

- "everyone is looking at the same obvious signature, therefore, it will NOT work"

- "everyone is overcomplicating the obvious signature saying it will not work, which is exactly why it WILL work"

if you want to keep playing that game, you absolutely can, but it comes at the expense of your sanity.

"strong opinions held loosely" is a much more enlightening approach.

when you stick with one opinion or the other, objectively, and rely on your abilities: you enable the possibility to capitalize on both outcomes, regardless.

hope you enjoyed the read. much love🖤