Đình chiến chiến tranh Mỹ-Iran 2 tuần! Bitcoin vọt lên 72.000, TSMC tăng mạnh, nhưng vẫn chưa thể quá lạc quan

Pakistan intermediary facilitates a US-Iran two-week ceasefire, Bitcoin surges past $72,000, oil prices plunge 13%, and global market sentiment flips rapidly.

Pakistan’s mediation works, and the US and Iran reach a two-week ceasefire agreement

At a crucial moment of heightened global geopolitical tension, an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough injected fresh momentum into the jittery markets. Hours before the 8-point ultimatum deadline set by US President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urgently proposed a two-week bilateral ceasefire between the US and Iran. Sharif called on the parties to exercise restraint through the social platform X, giving diplomatic negotiations room to achieve long-term peace and stability in the region. He said efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully are progressing steadily and have the potential to deliver concrete results in the near term.

Image source: X/@CMShehbaz Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif calls on the parties to exercise restraint and gives space for diplomatic negotiations

The proposal was quickly met with positive responses from both sides. US President Donald Trump later confirmed on Truth Social that he agreed to suspend bombing and attack actions against Iran for two weeks. Trump said that the US military has already achieved and surpassed all military objectives, and that negotiations with Iran on a long-term peace agreement have made significant progress.

Image source: Truth Social/@realDonaldTrump US President Donald Trump later confirmed on Truth Social that he agreed to suspend bombing and attack actions against Iran for two weeks

Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also announced acceptance of this two-week ceasefire proposal, but emphasized that the agreement represents a pause in defensive actions and does not mean the war has completely ended. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that if attacks against Iran stop, Iran’s armed forces will stop defensive actions and, under coordination with the military and considering technical constraints, will open the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage.

Bitcoin breaks through the 72,000 level; short positions are wiped out of $600 million

As risk-aversion sentiment cools and risk appetite returns, the cryptocurrency market is seeing a strong rebound. **Bitcoin ($BTC)**in just one short hour, burst out from a downward pattern of sideways trading near $69,000, surging past the key psychological level of $72,000 in one move, reaching as high as $72,753—marking a new high in nearly 20 days since March 18. Compared with the earlier situation that day when it fell below $68,000 due to fears of conflict escalation, this rise is over 5%, showing how highly crypto assets are sensitive to changes in overall economic and political developments.

This price surge triggered a large-scale chain reaction of leveraged liquidations. According to data from CoinDesk, Bitcoin’s rapid rally caused liquidations of nearly $600 million in crypto futures contracts across the entire network. Among the positions forced to close, more than $400 million came from short positions that were bearish. This strong Short Squeeze further reinforced the upward price trend, forcing traders who were originally short to cover their positions and pushing Bitcoin to hold above $71,000.

Market sentiment has shifted from extreme pessimism to cautious optimism. Just one day before the ceasefire agreement was reached, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had only just recorded an 11-point “Extreme Fear” rating, reflecting investors’ intense anxiety about the outlook. However, as the US and Iran reached consensus, market participants reexamined Bitcoin’s pricing logic.

Analysts believe that although Bitcoin is often viewed as a safe-haven asset, in the initial stage of extreme geopolitical crises it often falls in sync with risk assets. Only when conditions ease or diplomatic measures intervene will its nature as a barometer of global sentiment drive a retaliatory rebound.

WTI crude oil price plunges 13%; US stock futures rise on peace expectations

The news of the US-Iran ceasefire not only ignited the crypto market, but also had a huge impact on traditional financial markets, with energy markets reacting most sharply. With Iran sending signals to open up the Strait of Hormuz, if this key shipping lane—carrying about one-fifth of global oil supply—can restore passage, it would greatly ease the threat of disruption to energy supply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell sharply by about 13%, with prices breaking below the $100 level and dropping to the $95 to $98 range per barrel; Brent crude oil also saw a similar decline.

In equities, the removal of geopolitical risk has brought investors rushing back to the market. According to data provided by Cryptopolitan, US Dow Jones Industrial Average futures jumped 967 points, up about 2.1%; S&P 500 index (S&P 500) futures and Nasdaq 100 index (Nasdaq 100) futures also rose 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.

Asian markets were also boosted. In Taiwan, the stock market saw an explosive move at the Wednesday open: TSMC surged NT$80, lifting the index by 1,214 points, setting a record for the 5th largest intraday gain. Japan’s Nikkei 225 spiked 2,563 points, and South Korea’s Kospi composite index also rose by more than 6%.

Image source: Google Finance TSMC surged today by NT$80

The actions of large institutions such as Morgan Stanley have also drawn special attention at this moment. Reports say that this banking giant with $7 trillion in assets plans to launch its first bank-issued Bitcoin spot ETF on (4/8) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), which will undoubtedly inject expectations of additional capital flows into the crypto market that has just started to warm up again. The collapse in oil prices has effectively curbed the market’s fear of runaway inflation, providing the Federal Reserve (Fed) with more flexibility for its future rate decisions and optimizing the overall risk environment in financial markets.

The ceasefire window is only two weeks; the market cautiously watches the progress of negotiations

Although the market is currently immersed in the dividends brought by peace, senior analysts warn that the foundation of this ceasefire agreement remains fragile. Although a two-week window temporarily eases the imminent threat of airstrikes, core issues—including Iran’s nuclear weapons program and disputes over regional influence—have not yet been fundamentally resolved. The terms such as “technical constraints” and “military coordination” specifically mentioned in Iran’s official statement suggest that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may involve uncertainties.

In addition, the market is paying close attention to the negotiating pace of the Trump administration. Although Trump claims military objectives have been achieved and that the path is moving toward a long-term peace agreement, his foreign policy has always carried a high degree of uncertainty. If the two sides fail to reach consensus on substantive terms within the next 14 days, geopolitical pressure could return to the market at any time. Investors need to closely monitor the ceasefire ultimatum expiration date two weeks later, when market volatility may rise again.

At present, Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed key support levels and is demonstrating resilience by moving in sync with overall economic assets. The sustainability of this rally depends on substantive progress in diplomatic negotiations and the stability of global risk appetite. During the two-week buffer period, the crypto market may enter a high-level sideways volatility phase, while observing how governments and international organizations use this peaceful window to push for the final agreement. For investors, this brief pause in the US-Iran war provides an opportunity to take profits and also serves as a window to reassess risk boundaries in investment portfolios.