I. The Ongoing Trade War Escalates: A 24-Hour Cross-Market Flash Crash Relay

Source: Forbes

1.1 Global Financial Market Collapse!

On the morning of April 7, global financial markets collapsed amidst fears of escalating trade tensions from the “reciprocal tariffs” policy. Stocks, crude oil, precious metals, and even cryptocurrencies all saw significant declines. In the Asian market, U.S. stock index futures continued the downtrend from the previous week, with Nasdaq 100 futures plummeting 5%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures both fell more than 4%. The European market was similarly bleak, with Germany’s DAX futures dropping nearly 5%, while European STOXX 50 and the UK’s FTSE futures both saw losses exceeding 4%.

The Asian market opened to a stampede of sell-offs: South Korea’s KOSPI 200 futures crashed 5% in early trading, triggering a circuit breaker; the Australian index lost 6% within two hours of opening; Singapore’s Straits Times Index plunged 7.29% in a single day, setting a new record. The Middle Eastern market experienced a “Black Sunday” in advance, with Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index plummeting 6.1% in one day, while stock indices in oil-producing countries like Qatar and Kuwait also dropped more than 5.5%.

The commodity market was filled with cries of despair: WTI crude oil fell below the $60 psychological mark, reaching a two-year low, with a 4% daily drop; gold unexpectedly lost the $3010 support level, while silver’s weekly drop widened to 13%; in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin fell below key support levels, and Ethereum plunged by 10% in a single day, completely shattering the myth of digital assets as a safe haven.

1.2 Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

Short-term Market Shock

Recent policies from the Trump administration have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, causing notable volatility. In January, when Trump signed an executive order to establish a cryptocurrency regulatory framework and study a national cryptocurrency reserve, the market responded positively, pushing the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies to $3.65 trillion by the end of the month, with a cumulative gain of 9.14%. However, the introduction of tariffs in February quickly reversed the market trend. Particularly after the announcement on February 3 that long-term import tariffs would be imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant declines that mirrored stock market movements: Bitcoin fell by 8% within 24 hours, Ethereum dropped more than 10%, leading to $900 million in liquidations and 310,000 forced liquidations.

Transmission Mechanism

The tariff policies affect the cryptocurrency market through multiple channels: First, the escalating trade tensions increase volatility in global markets, strengthening the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset and driving funds back into the U.S. market. Secondly, institutional investors may liquidate cryptocurrency assets to manage risks and offset losses in other investment portfolios. Thirdly, the inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs may weaken consumer purchasing power, thereby lowering market risk appetite, especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market.

Long-term Potential Opportunities

Despite the significant short-term impact, tariff policies may create structural opportunities for the cryptocurrency market in the following ways:

• Liquidity Expansion Expectations
  The Trump administration may implement expansionary fiscal policies through tax cuts and infrastructure investments to offset the fiscal deficit, with debt monetization measures potentially increasing market liquidity. Historical experience shows that during the 2020 U.S. Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion balance sheet expansion, Bitcoin prices rose by more than 300%, suggesting that a new round of liquidity injections could support crypto assets.
• Strengthened Anti-Inflation Hedge Properties
  Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp, pointed out that if the trade war leads to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin could serve as a hedge due to its fixed supply characteristics. The competitive devaluation of currencies triggered by tariffs may prompt more investors to use cryptocurrencies as an alternative channel for capital flow across borders.

II. “Merchant + Dictator = Market Manipulation”

Source: Marketwatch

2.1 Starting with the Tariff War on Trade Deficits

In Trump’s business mindset, the so-called “trade deficit” is not a complex economic concept but rather resembles a price imbalance in a procurement negotiation between buyers and suppliers. Economist Fu Peng offers an explanation: imagine the buyer calls all potential suppliers to the table and says, “We need to renegotiate the terms of our cooperation.” This sounds a lot like the centralized bidding process in the pharmaceutical industry. Indeed, Trump’s approach is a typical example of bidding tactics.

If tariffs are seen as a “price restriction,” the high tariffs set by Trump essentially serve as a pre-established psychological price point in the bidding process — anyone wanting to win the bid must compete below this price. While this tactic may sound crude and arbitrary, it is quite common in large government-led procurement projects.

Some might question whether this is something Trump randomly decided, like pulling an Excel sheet out of nowhere, but in reality, his strategy is not overly complicated. Essentially, it involves setting an artificial “threshold price,” forcing suppliers to come to the negotiating table. The direct effect of this strategy is that anyone who refuses to negotiate is automatically out of the game. If a country does not accept the “maximum offer,” it faces the harshest tariffs, essentially forfeiting access to the market.

In this situation, nations wanting to participate in the “bidding” process must sit down and negotiate with the U.S. — how to reduce tariffs, how to allocate products, and how to modify the rules. What seems like a trade confrontation is, in fact, a series of commercial negotiations propelled by repeated rounds of bargaining. As Citi’s Head of Asian Trading Strategies, Mohamed Apabai, clearly pointed out in his report, Trump is using a classic negotiation strategy.

For smaller suppliers, there is little room for negotiation, as they find it difficult to bargain with the buyer (the U.S.). Hence, the buyer (the U.S.) uses concessions from smaller suppliers to apply further pressure on the larger ones. This strategy — first breaking through the periphery and then surrounding the center — essentially uses concessions from the outer edge to force the core players to compromise.

Therefore, in a sense, Trump’s so-called “tariff war” is not entirely about waging war but creating a “non-negotiable” situation. His real game is about forcing others to negotiate or pushing them out of the market entirely.

2.2 “The Dictator”

Although the United States boasts a powerful constitutional system and democratic traditions, Trump’s actions during his presidency were widely criticized as displaying “dictatorial” tendencies. This criticism is not baseless but is grounded in his repeated challenges to institutional norms, democratic mechanisms, media environments, and power structures. While Trump did not completely break the U.S. constitutional framework, his actions showed clear traits of a dictator — breaking institutional boundaries, suppressing dissent, and consolidating personal power.

Undermining Institutional Checks and Balances, Bypassing Congress to Centralize Power

During his presidency, Trump frequently used executive orders to implement policies, such as building the U.S.-Mexico border wall, issuing the “Muslim ban,” and reducing environmental regulations. When Congress refused to allocate funds for the border wall, he declared a “national emergency” to use military funds, bypassing legislative constraints. This behavior undermined the principle of the separation of powers outlined in the U.S. Constitution, leading to an unprecedented expansion of executive power and a marked centralization of authority.

Attacking Press Freedom and Creating an “Enemy” Narrative

Trump frequently labeled media outlets that criticized him as “fake news” and even referred to CNN, The New York Times, and others as “enemies of the people.” He repeatedly attacked journalists, TV hosts, and commentators on Twitter, inciting hostility toward the media among his supporters. In political communication, such “delegitimizing” of the media is a common tactic used by dictatorial leaders to control public discourse, aiming to weaken the public’s trust in diverse sources of information and establish a media monopoly.

Interfering with Judicial Independence, Prioritizing “Loyalty Over Expertise”

Trump often publicly criticized the judicial system, especially when courts ruled against his policies. He even singled out and criticized individual judges. For example, he referred to a judge who opposed his immigration policy as a “Mexican,” suggesting that the judge’s rulings were biased. Additionally, his appointments often prioritized loyalty over professional expertise, frequently changing key positions such as Attorney General and FBI Director, severely undermining judicial independence.

Refusing to Accept Election Results, Undermining Peaceful Transition of Power

After the 2020 presidential election, Trump refused to concede defeat, claiming the election was “stolen” and repeatedly called for “recounts” or the “overturning” of the results. More seriously, his rhetoric led to the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, where a large group of his supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to block the certification of Joe Biden’s victory. This incident was widely seen as a dark day for American democracy and a clear attempt to interfere with the peaceful transfer of power, exhibiting unmistakable dictatorial traits.

Promoting a Cult of Personality and Creating a “Leader-Only” Narrative

Trump implemented a highly personalized style of governance within his party and administration, demanding absolute loyalty. He often praised himself at rallies, describing himself as “the greatest president in history” and implying that without him, the country would collapse. This political rhetoric fostered a “savior” myth about himself, diminishing the role of collective governance and institutional norms, and leading to a drift towards personal worship and populism.

2.3 Trump’s Two-Faced Chess Game: Not a President, But a “Stock Guru”

Donald Trump, the billionaire who rose from the real estate empire, shocked many when he successfully became the President of the United States in 2016. His rise to power as a “non-typical politician” led many to question how someone with a business background could end up in the most powerful position in the world. Looking at his approach to governance and political actions, and combining this with the earlier assumptions of Trump as a “businessman” and “dictator,” I personally believe that Trump is not a “president” in the traditional sense, but rather a “super trader” who views power, public opinion, and financial markets as tools: someone who turns the White House into a Wall Street trading room, capitalizing on market volatility like a “stock guru.” From the perspective of a “trader,” Trump’s seemingly unconventional actions begin to make sense.

Businessman Nature: Treating the Presidency as a “Super Trading Platform”

Trump is a typical businessman-politician. He has spent decades in the business world, skillfully creating headlines, controlling public opinion, and engaging in speculative arbitrage. He doesn’t govern the country based on political logic; rather, he sees U.S. and global affairs through a “business lens.” His governance isn’t about institutional improvement or global leadership, but about achieving “transaction results,” emphasizing “America First,” which in essence is “profit first.”

Additionally, Trump also displays strong “dictator” tendencies, particularly in how he handles public opinion and concentrates power. He controls the flow of information, frequently making market-shaking statements on Twitter, such as “We are about to strike a major deal with China” or “The Federal Reserve should lower interest rates.” These remarks often trigger massive volatility in financial markets. For an ordinary president, these comments may simply reflect diplomatic postures; but for a leader acting with a “market manipulation mindset,” these statements are precise tools for manipulating the market.

Dictatorial Style of Language: Using Information to Intervene in Market Sentiment

If one of the core features of a dictator is “control and manipulation of information,” then Trump is a master of “shaking up the market” through information. He doesn’t need to censor or shut down the media; he creates uncertainty and confrontation, becoming the most powerful source of information in the market.

In the Twitter era, he frequently posts “market-impacting statements” much like a financial news anchor:

• “China will sign a huge trade deal.”
• “If the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut interest rates, the U.S. will lose its competitive edge.”
• “Oil prices are too high, it’s OPEC’s fault.”
• “The border wall will be built, the market should feel reassured.”

These statements, although not formal policies, often lead to sharp volatility in markets like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, gold, and oil. The timing of the statements, the weight of the words, and even the choice of words all reflect a pattern of market manipulation.

What’s even more striking is his constant “flip-flopping.” One day he praises the progress of U.S.-China talks, and the next day he announces an increase in tariffs. One morning he says the Fed should cut interest rates, and by afternoon, he’s complaining the dollar is too weak. This constant back-and-forth is not political wavering but a highly controlled manipulation of market sentiment, turning volatility into an opportunity for profit.

Family Capital Network: Arbitrage Channels Built on Power and Information

Trump’s business network didn’t stop after he became president; it was instead granted more “legitimacy” and influence. His family members, such as Jared Kushner and Ivanka, continue to participate extensively in political and business affairs, with direct influence in areas such as Middle Eastern policy, tech investment, and real estate. Reports have frequently disclosed how his family’s trust funds and close-knit investment groups leveraged policy foresight to engage in financial arbitrage:

• Before Trump’s large-scale tax cuts were introduced, funds close to him had heavily invested in U.S. stocks.
• Whenever Trump hinted at releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or taking military action, there were suspicious trades in the energy markets.
• During the trade war with China, Trump’s remarks about “reaching an agreement” often led to sharp short-term market surges.

While insider trading cannot be definitively proven, the control over information and the concentration of policy-making power make the “arbitrage channels” extremely valuable. The president is no longer just a representative of the system; instead, he becomes a “trader” with unlimited access to insider information and immense influence over the market.

“Creating Chaos — Guiding Toward — Harvesting Results”: A Typical Market Manipulator’s Strategy

Traditional presidents seek stability and continuity, but Trump seems to specialize in “creating chaos.” He excels at sparking market panic and then “calming” the market with soothing remarks, orchestrating the entire process like a market cycle:

• “Fire on Iran” — market panic — next day, releasing negotiation signals — market rebounds.
• Announcing increased tariffs on China — tech stocks plummet — few days later, claiming “China is very receptive” — market rebounds.
• During the pandemic, saying the virus is “under control” — stock market briefly rebounds — later, a reversal of information leads to another downturn.

Behind these seemingly random statements is a highly coordinated effort to guide emotions and market timing. He understands the public’s emotional reactions and, like a super market manipulator, dominates the collective psychology of global investors.

Post-Trump Era: Personal Brand Continues to Influence the Market

Even after leaving office, Trump continues to influence market timing. A mere hint of his potential return to politics sends stocks in energy, military, social media, and conservative tech sectors into a flurry of activity. Take the example of Trump Media Group (Truth Social) going public via a reverse merger: despite having no real profitability, the stock surged dramatically. This is a clear reflection of how Trump’s brand itself has become a trading vehicle, an embodiment of his financialization and branding strategy.

III. The Crypto Market Orchestrated by the U.S.: Collusion of Capital and Power

Source: Al Jazeera

3.1 Power Restructuring: What Trump Wants Is Not Bitcoin, but Bitcoin “Americanized”

The current crypto market is no longer a haven for decentralization ideals but a new type of financial colony controlled by U.S. capital and power. Since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, Wall Street giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and MicroStrategy have quickly positioned themselves as major holders of Bitcoin spot assets, locking what was once a community-driven asset in the vaults of Wall Street. Financialization and policymaking have become the dominant logic, with crypto asset prices no longer determined by market behavior but by Federal Reserve interest rate signals, SEC regulatory dynamics, and even a presidential candidate’s casual endorsement of “supporting crypto.”

The essence of this “Americanization” is the re-integration of decentralized assets into one center — the American financial hegemony system. ETFs have caused the crypto market to rise and fall in tandem with the U.S. stock market. Behind the candlestick charts lies the pulse of U.S. bond market fluctuations and CPI data. Bitcoin, once seen as a symbol of freedom, is now increasingly resembling an “alternative Nasdaq constituent stock that reacts to Federal Reserve intentions with a delay.”

3.2 The Strategic Value of Bitcoin: A Non-Sovereign Reserve Asset, But a Grey Substitute for U.S. Dollar Hegemony

The Trump era laid the groundwork for Bitcoin’s national financial positioning. Instead of directly announcing support like traditional politicians, he quietly facilitated the migration of mining power, relaxed regulatory ambiguities, and supported mining infrastructure to integrate Bitcoin into the U.S. strategic financial resources pool. In light of the weakening expectations of the traditional dollar credit system, Bitcoin is gradually taking on the role of a “non-sovereign reserve asset,” being shaped into a safe-haven alternative during financial turmoil.

This strategic approach is very American: a silent battle, a quiet absorption. The U.S. has dominated much of Bitcoin’s financial infrastructure (Coinbase, CME, BlackRock ETF) and further consolidated on-chain settlement capabilities through stablecoins (USDC). When global turmoil, capital flight, and shifts in trust occur, the U.S. has already quietly gained control of this “dollar alternative in the process of de-dollarization.”

Trump might have had a far-reaching vision: Bitcoin’s belief has nothing to do with him, but he has domesticated its financial properties as another “monetary sovereignty tool” for the U.S. In scenarios where the dollar is constrained, SWIFT is unusable, and fiat currencies are devalued, Bitcoin becomes an alternative strategy for maintaining power.

3.3 The Truth Behind the Operation? Trump Is Not Just the President, But the “Super Trader” of the Financial Battlefields

First, let’s acknowledge a simple fact: any financial market spends 90% of its time in consolidation, and only “big fluctuations can generate big profits.”

So, with all the previous points in mind, while Trump appears to be the president on the surface, he is actually more of a flow-driven super trader. His goal is simple: to create market volatility and control it in order to profit from those fluctuations.

Trump is skilled at using information, flow, and influence to manipulate the direction of the market and make profits from market fluctuations. On one hand, he supports Bitcoin as a “U.S. strategic reserve,” while on the other hand, he drains market liquidity by launching meme token $TRUMP. This is a “information intervention + liquidity siphoning” market manipulation strategy.

What’s more brutal is that the movements of the crypto market are increasingly dependent on U.S. political games: Federal Reserve statements, SEC actions, presidential candidates’ remarks, and congressional hearings… What was once a decentralized crypto system is now deeply embedded in U.S. monetary policy, the structure of U.S. equities, and the logic of American big capital. The crypto market has now become an “extended battlefield” of the American financial system.

We are witnessing a harsh reality: The market seems free, yet it has long been choreographed; prices seem to fluctuate, yet behind the scenes, those controlling the flow of information and liquidity are setting the stage.

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