Smileycapital

safest positions until de-escalation are oil longs and dollar longs/holdings
any risk asset exposure should be hedged
I keep repeating this war runs deeper than most people think, by the time they understand, it will be too late

literally the only real usecase i see in bitcoin and ethereum is that they are the most sensitive assets when it comes to pricing in future liquidity, macro landscape and geopolitics
very easily used as a barometer for risk appetite as they move way sooner than everything else
eg. Iran war was priced in weeks before the actual event

Hyperliquid is the only coin I'm comfortable holding right now

positioning update/thoughts;
people asking me if I'm bullish risk due to my AI longs;
NO.
I sold crypto spot today I talked about a ~month ago for +25% [HYPE, MORPHO, SKY]
I am ~90% flat, as I have been publicly since August
my perp positioning is skewed VERY bearish risk, expressing it mostly via CL longs, DXY longs [currency pairs] and hopefully soon I can short BTC & ETH directly as well
my smaller longs in AI sector are merely an imbalanced hedge against main positions - they're also a good bet in case of any de-escalation on the war front
institutional equity puts are at fairly high level

problem with this war is that USA is going to be stuck with oil trading at extreme premium
Trump assuring that this is somehow positive for them is a total LARP
Iran knows it and will press the wound
either temporary peace pact [keyword temporary] or they sending ground troops

regularly going to sleep at 10-11pm is a literal hack in a caffeine fueled sleep deprived society that thinks running on 5h of low quality sleep is somehow more productive

crypto latching onto USA government was not only everything Satoshi/OGs fought against, but also a way from them to politicize the industry - irony that rally has been entirely wiped with nothing palpable to show for
due to war, you will continue seeing the ugly side of this 'USA<>crypto' double-edged sword