I think the US administration, mainly Bessent, has a certain Bitcoin price point or time frame next year when they will likely come out, defend it, and start talking it up again.
Bitcoin wasn’t a priority in the first 12 months, it will certainly be as the mid-terms approach.

Bitcoin sold off on the previous two rate cuts in September and October.
In the short-term bitcoin doesn't like a "soft market".
Admittedly October was during the correction, so September is a better gauge.

BTFP was QE
Reserve Management is QE

Powell will goose this market until April and ride off into the sunset.
Then the new Fed chair will goose the market until the mid-terms.
Sounds like a great 12 months coming up.

Feels appropriate to resurface

Feels appropriate to resurface

As the SOFR rate continues to fall to 3% and lower to 2%, over time.
Junk and corporate credit will go down with it.
This is when MSTR's digital credit, at 4× greater effective yield, will stand out.
That's when the non-dilutive Bitcoin accumulation game begins for the company

3% has been the stealth inflation target for the Fed.
3% has been the average over the past 18 months.
The Fed hasn't reached the 2% target since February 2021.
They will not sacrifice 1% for the good of the economy.
Trump will "run it hot" for 2026.

"We do not currently intend to issue additional STRC using an ATM if the gross issuance price before fees would be below $99."
STRC at $99.12

Bitcoin tends to sell-off before big events.
But once SPX and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs, plus rate cut meeting is behind us and digest Powell's comments.
Bitcoin marches back to $100k.

This is why @RealJimChanos took his short position away before MSTR hit its 1x mNAV.
He knew the company would be in extreme discount territory.
Stock is up 25%+ from the lows.
Well done Jim.

If you listen carefully, you can hear the sound of the ATM going off on MSTR common shares right now.

First time this year the Bitcoin price is up during a bitcoin conference.

Exactly 3 weeks ago, Bitcoin went below $90k.
Each time it has gone below $90k in the past 3 weeks, the duration has been shorter

It took Saylor 4 years to get the ATM working proficiently.
The preferreds will take time; on aggregate, they haven't even been trading 12 months.

Two interesting observations from this recent correction:
BTC bottomed 10 days prior to MSTR (usually MSTR leads).
STRF/SFRD had its biggest dislocation on Nov 18, meaning the preferreds front-ran both the BTC and MSTR bottoms.

That was the seventh largest Bitcoin purchase for MSTR this year, at the lowest mNAV and share price.

Anyone else noticing the higher lows bitcoin has put in since Nov. 21 or do we have to be bearish therefore irrational.

Think this is the fifth FT article on MSTR in the past 30 days.
Bottom getting closer