IgnasDeFi

Things I got wrong this cycle:
- restaking
- Runes/Ordinals
- Friend tech
- Stacks ecosystem
- Sonic
- Arweave/AO
Weirdly, a few good decisions fixed the above mistakes:
- Not fading Sol
- Buying Hype
- Selling airdrops
- No leverage.
Not many lessons to take from these mistakes: I believed and still believe in clicking buttons.
But the amount of clicking has decreased significantly since late 2025.
The R/R for alts seems bad and great airdrops are few and rare.

Seeing so many prominent CT accounts fall for geopolitical psyops and propaganda makes me question their ability to navigate crypto narratives.
After years in crypto, you should have built strong bullshit detectors.
We’ve got shitloads of lessons to filter through scams, manipulation, and coordinated hype every cycle.
The whole point was to stop falling for simple, viral, emotionally charged stories and start questioning who benefits.
The worst part is you gain nothing by engaging in geopolitical debates on CT.
You just lose credibility and gain enemies.
Even though you won't notice it as 'mut

Does Ethereum Foundation have Ethereum equity?

It's sad the amount of CT accounts I muted recently as they shifted to non-crypto content.
Guys, I don't really care about your take on rage-bait viral videos that are in NO WAY connected to crypto.
Focus.

At the end of the day, crypto fails to pump because most tokens sit in two hands:
- OG whales
- Retail
Whales grew up, started families, and are selling after massive gains. Mostly to institutions, as planned.
Retail is sentiment-driven. Short-term. Emotional. Panic sellers.
Price moves only when supply shifts again to long-term holders.
That’s the Great Rotation.
Everything else is post-factum justification.

Projects launched DAOs and promised value accrual to token once protocol is profitable.
But when protocol is profitable, suddenly equity gets the upside.
As for tokenless projects like Kalshi, Polymarket, why launch token and give 60% - 70% of the tokens (and revenue) away when you can keep larger share to yourself via equity.
Incentives are broken in crypto.

Maybe it’s good crypto prices are subdued in the short term:
Crypto quietly passes key regulation, Blackrock and others tokenize assets, and builders build key infrastructure for mass adoption.
If crypto was as noisy as in 2020/21 with monkey NFTs in millions, multiple scams then we could face big backlash.
Now, the public largely does not care what happens.
And when critics start to care, it will be too late to change anything.
Just a thought before going to sleep.
Gn

Base app will probably get the largest share of $BASE airdrop.
In retrospect, it would be the most obvious airdrop:
Brian Armstrong and Jesse shill it all the time.
And many are still lazy to sign up.

If Firedancer is live on Solana, what’s the point of Fogo?

There’s no speculative premium in crypto right now.
ETH, SOL and multiple DeFi tokens are undervalued.

2022/23: Everyone held ETH and alts to outperform BTC.
Now: Only BTC in portfolio. No one wants alts or ETH.
Altcoin fatigue is real.