As the tug-of-war between the White House and Congress once again pushes the government to the brink of a shutdown, traditional safe-haven assets are no longer sufficient to cope with this Crisis of Confidence triggered by politics, and the true value anchor is shifting.
"If Congress cannot reach a budget agreement before the deadline, the U.S. federal government may face another shutdown on January 30." Trump's remarks dropped a bombshell in the global capital markets.

The Federal Reserve is approaching a dual critical juncture: a rate cut cycle and a change of chairmanship. Trump has narrowed the list of candidates for chair to four, namely Harshad, Wosh, Waller, and Riedel. Bowman has officially withdrawn from the candidate pool, and Riedel will undergo interviews in the last week of the year. Trump explicitly stated that the next chair must support significant rate cuts and that monetary policy decisions should be negotiated with his team. The candidate will be finalized within a few weeks. Recently, Trump met with Waller and publicly praised him.

Looking back at the end of 2025, the cryptocurrency industry has reached a critical crossroads. It is no longer the wild market driven solely by retail investor sentiment and speculative frenzy that it once was. The deep correction and volatility after Bitcoin surged to $120,000 fundamentally represent a transformation in its asset nature: today, it is a high-volatility institutional-grade asset deeply tied to macroeconomic sentiment and institutional capital flows. The continuous influx and sudden halt of ETF funds reflect how traditional financial strategies are beginning to dominate the mar

Tonight's data will be the last key inflation report before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, with a significant impact on policy expectations:
Data Performance Possible Market Reactions
CPI Year-over-Year ≥3.3% The market may reprice Fed rate cut expectations being delayed, the dollar strengthens, and stocks and bonds come under pressure
CPI Year-over-Year 3.0%-3.2% In line with expectations, limited impact on the market, high probability that the Fed will maintain its current policy path
CPI Year-over-Year ≤2.8% May reinforce market expectations for a Fed rate cut, the dollar weakens,

Where are the miners headed? This is similar to the storyline in 2021: domestic mining farms face the choice of either "moving underground to be more discreet" or "completely migrating overseas." Compliant mining pools in the US, Kazakhstan, and other regions will become the main beneficiaries.
· Long-term warning: This incident once again sounds the alarm— the Bitcoin network remains quite fragile, highly dependent on energy and policies in specific regions. Any slight change could trigger significant fluctuations in the entire network's hash rate.

The fundamentals of ETH remain firmly optimistic, but since the major crash on 1011, market liquidity has significantly decreased. The contract market dominates rather than the spot market. The current fluctuations are within a normal range, especially with the four-year cycle resonance and the upcoming Christmas. However, for spot investments, it's not always necessary to buy at the lowest price; rather, it's about the most suitable investment price range.

JPMorgan officially announces the launch of its first tokenized money market fund on the Ethereum network, marking the Wall Street giant's continued expansion into crypto and on-chain finance.
It is reported that the fund will be supported by JPMorgan's own funds, with an initial seed size of approximately $100 million, to test the feasibility of tokenized assets in traditional financial products.

The market has already fully priced in this expectation. The 2-year Japanese government bond yield has already reached 1%, the highest since 2008, indicating that the bond market has long since priced it in. Second, speculators have already established large net long positions in the yen — Bob Elliott is right; yen carry trades were actually cleaned out in October. Third, this rate hike is a "gradual normalization," not a policy sudden shift.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the clearing giant DTCC on Wall Street to tokenize stocks and bonds onto the blockchain.
That well-known old bank in the financial circle, the American banking giant, announced the launch of a loan service collateralized with $BTC.

In the crypto market, retail investors are never the "meat eaters," but the "shock absorbers." When the trend is unfavorable, outperforming most people is more important than how much you make. I have already identified all the risk points clearly; now it's up to your choice.

Silence has often been regarded as a deficiency, a weightless blank space unless someone assigns it meaning. However, in decentralized systems, the manifestation of silence is different. It has tone, structure, and timing. It appears in communication environments that people anticipate but conceal. It appears in drafts that should have been updated but remain untouched.

The latest intelligence shows that tomorrow's FOMC meeting is likely to directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points - you read that right, not 25, but a full half percentage point! The market has gone crazy, and the probability has soared to 89.4%, which is almost a clear card. This is no longer a question of "whether it will be lowered", but "how much and how ruthless".

Kevin Hassett, the frontrunner for the next Fed chair, made a late-night statement, laying his cards on the table: he supports continued rate cuts! As soon as the news broke, it was like a nuclear button had been pressed on Wall Street—analysts scrambled to rewrite reports overnight, and market expectations exploded instantly.
In just one night, the sentiment reversed 180 degrees! Rate cuts shifted from a “possibility” to a nearly certain event with a 90% probability!

Banking Association + Payment and Clearing Association: Block capital flows → Buying and selling USDT, cross-border transfers
Securities, Fund, and Futures Associations: Block financial products → Prohibit tokenized securities and virtual funds
Internet Finance Association: Block traffic and platforms → Ban Web3 promotion and clean up transaction-related traffic generation
Listed Companies Association: Block “borderline” traditional finance → Ban companies from disguised financing through tokenization
In summary: All touchpoints that virtual currencies can reach—including capital, prod

There is an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The likelihood of a rate hike in Japan has increased significantly. One is cutting rates, the other is raising them—two different moves. How much impact will this have on the Shanghai Composite Index, and how should we respond?
First, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday, it is clearly positive for U.S. stocks, and a significant rally can be expected. With a strong rally in U.S. stocks, European and Asia-Pacific stock markets are also likely to surge. The probability

For decades, the near-zero interest rate yen has been used by global traders as "cheap fuel," converted into US dollars and poured into high-risk markets such as US stocks and crypto. Once Japan initiates an interest rate hike cycle, trillions of dollars’ worth of funds will be forced to close positions and flow back, with risk assets like Bitcoin bearing the brunt and facing enormous pressure from systematic sell-offs.

The price of Bitcoin has fallen below the production cost, so high-cost miners can’t even cover their electricity expenses after mining for a day—they’re forced to sell their Bitcoin for cash! To make matters worse, Morgan has slashed the estimated production cost of Bitcoin from $94,000 to $90,000, simply because if electricity prices rise by just $0.01 per kWh, the production cost for high-cost miners jumps by $18,000! Is this even mining anymore? It’s like throwing your life into a bottomless pit!

Musk’s words really seem prophetic! Right at this tense moment in China-Japan relations, he actually pronounced a “death sentence” on Japan’s future.
Musk’s mouth really is like it has a prophet chip installed. When he posted “Japan’s birth rate can’t keep up with the death rate, eventually it will disappear” on social media a few years ago, many Japanese officials thought he was meddling in things that didn’t concern him—an outsider who makes electric cars and rockets, randomly commenting on population issues.

According to the views expressed by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and COO Rob Goldstein in The Economist, tokenization will not immediately replace traditional finance, but will become an important connector between the two 🔗. They believe that traditional institutions and digital innovators will achieve interoperability through tokenization, thereby expanding the types of investable assets beyond just stocks and bonds.

Regulatory policies should not be pursued to perfection before being introduced; products should first enter the market, and issues should be identified and corrected in practice. Otherwise, the best development opportunities will be missed.
10. Liquidity must focus on globalization and cannot limit users to a small local area; otherwise, it will be difficult to attract and retain large-scale funds, restricting the long-term development of the industry.