The U.S. cryptocurrency tax system is expected to undergo significant adjustments. Two bipartisan congressmen recently proposed a tax reform draft called the "Digital Asset PARITY Act," aiming to establish a "tax-free safe harbor" for everyday use of stablecoin payments and to present a compromise on "when to tax staking rewards."
The "Digital Asset PARITY Act" was jointly introduced by Republican Ohio Congressman Max Miller and Democratic Nevada Congressman Steven Horsford, both of whom are members of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Author: 0xBrooker

For the global financial market, last week can be described as "Mine Clearance Week," as multiple significant data releases, interest rate events, and settlement days unfolded, gradually alleviating short-term risks in the US stock market.
BTC is still in the de-leveraging/re-pricing phase after the high point of 126,000 USD in October 2025, having retraced over 30%. The price is repeatedly testing the range of 85,000 to 90,000 but has not yet formed a trend reversal signal.
In terms of market participants' activities, long-position holders continue to reduce their holdings, retail investors are continuously withdrawing, while DATs and whale groups are still increasing their positions. The competition is still ongoing, but the selling trend is slowing down, and the easing of macro liquidity has somewhat restored trading enthusiasm. In the coming weeks, BTC is expected to challenge 94,000 dollars again.
Policy, macro-finance, and economic data
Multiple major events in the global financial markets

Author: Nancy, PANews

Quantum attacks have long existed in the narrative of Bitcoin. In the past, this threat was seen more as a theoretical black swan. However, with the rapid evolution of quantum computing technology, this controversy seems to be shifting.
Recently, Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, pointed out that quantum computing is only a "engineering challenge" away from breaking Bitcoin. This argument has sparked division within the community, with some denouncing it as a deliberate attempt to create panic, while others believe it is a survival crisis that must be faced. At the same time, many projects have already begun to prepare in advance, actively exploring and deploying solutions to defend against quantum attacks.
Quantum attack alert upgrade? Protocol modification may take a decade.
The threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is not a new topic. Recently, the rapid advancement of quantum computing technology has brought this issue back to the forefront. For example,

Fidelity's global macro research director Jurien Timmer, who has been bullish on Bitcoin for the long term, has recently turned more cautious. He warned that Bitcoin has likely completed another "4-year cycle" and will enter a correction period lasting up to a year, with the possibility of facing a "crypto winter."
Jurien Timmer pointed out that based on historical experience, Bitcoin's trend has consistently followed a repeatedly cyclical pattern. From the perspective of historical rules and time structure, the current market cycle highly matches the past transitions between bull and bear markets.
He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a historical high of $125,000 in October this year, after experiencing an increase over approximately 145 months, which completely aligns with the expected range of historical models.
Jurien Timmer stated that the Bitcoin bear market (commonly referred to as "crypto winter") typically lasts about a year. He

The bankruptcy liquidators of Terraform Labs have filed a lawsuit against Jump Trading, seeking $4 billion in damages, accusing it of abusing the ecosystem during the Terra collapse, leading to approximately $40 billion in losses. Jump Trading denies the allegations, calling this an attempt to shift responsibility. Currently, Terraform Labs has recovered about $300 million in assets.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the Insurance Authority (IA) of Hong Kong is formulating a series of new regulations to guide insurance capital flows towards assets, including Crypto Assets and infrastructure, in an attempt to direct private funds to areas prioritized by the government for development.
According to internal briefing documents obtained by Bloomberg, the Hong Kong Insurance Authority is preparing to open the door to virtual assets for insurance funds, but remains highly cautious in risk management.
It is reported that the Insurance Authority will implement a 100% risk capital requirement for Crypto Assets; as for stablecoins, the risk capital requirements will be based on the current regulations in Hong Kong regarding the peg of stablecoins to fiat currency.
The content of this proposal may still change, and it is expected to officially launch public consultations from February to April next year, followed by submission to the Legislative Council for deliberation.
The Insurance Authority pointed out in response to inquiries from Bloomberg that it has initiated a risk-based capital framework this year.

The Bank of Japan today (19th) raised interest rates by 1 basis point as expected, but the financial market staged a "counterintuitive" drama: the Japanese yen fell instead of rising, depreciating to the 156 mark against the US dollar; Bitcoin surged past $87,000 at one point.
To mitigate the risk of continuously rising prices, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to raise the policy interest rate by 25 basis points (1 yard) to 0.75%, marking the highest interest rate level in 30 years and signaling Japan's formal farewell to decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.
In the decision statement, the Bank of Japan admitted that due to rising import prices and domestic inflation, the inflation rate has long been maintained above the target of 2%. However, decision-makers also emphasized that the "real interest rate" after excluding inflation is still negative. This means that even with nominal interest rates rising, the monetary policy environment remains inclined towards "accommodative."
After the news was released, the market showed a typical "sell

Analysts point out that Bitcoin is hovering near the "crucial long-term support line" and has been holding on for 3 weeks, keeping the long positions in the market on edge. However, as the world's largest Bitcoin holder, the publicly traded company Strategy (MSTR) has already seen its stock price break this "safety line," sending a strong bearish signal to the Crypto Assets market.
CoinDesk senior analyst and chartered market technician Omkar Godbole explains that this "safety line" is the extremely critical "100-week Simple Moving Average (100-week SMA)" in technical analysis, which primarily reflects the average cost over the past two years. It is an indicator used by major market technical analysts to identify significant trend reversals, long-term support, or confirm crashes.
From the trend perspective, the 100-week moving average has demonstrated strong performance for 3 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. Crypto Assets regulatory legislation, the "Clarity Act," will enter its final review stage in January next year, symbolizing that formal legislation is one step closer. The bill aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for crypto assets, has received support in the House of Representatives, and will be integrated with the Senate version to pave the way for the final version.

Tom Lee is optimistic about Ethereum, believing it will become the core settlement layer of future finance, driving up the value of Ether. He pointed out that institutional adoption is still in its early stages, and Ethereum has more practical utility than Bitcoin. He predicts that 2026 will be a big year for Ethereum and provides multiple price forecasts, emphasizing that investors should make their own decisions.

The U.S. Senate approved Mike Selig to serve as the chairman of the CFTC and Travis Hill to lead the FDIC, both of whom hold a friendly attitude towards Crypto Assets. The CFTC is gradually becoming the core agency for regulating Crypto Assets, facing challenges of insufficient manpower. Meanwhile, the FDIC is committed to addressing the regulatory pressure from banks on the crypto industry, promoting banking services for the encryption industry.

As Bitcoin shows signs of fatigue in its recent trend and market sentiment turns cautious, Citigroup has released a forecast report predicting that Bitcoin is expected to rise to $143,000 in the base case over the next 12 months. Based on the current price of about $88,000, this implies a potential upside of 62% for Bitcoin.
Citigroup analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer, and Vinh Vo pointed out in a joint report that as Bitcoin enters the new year, the price range may fall between "$80,000 and $90,000," primarily supported by user activity, but the real highlight is next year.
The Citigroup analysis team predicts that as the legislative process related to digital assets in the United States is expected to make substantial progress in the second quarter, the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies will witness a new surge.
On the technical side, the Citigroup team

On-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant warns that due to the明显 weakening of Bitcoin demand momentum, crypto assets may have entered a bear market, and the subsequent risk of a fall cannot be ignored.
CryptoQuant recently released a report stating: "(Bitcoin) demand growth has clearly slowed down, indicating that the market will enter a Bear Market. Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced 3 waves of spot demand, driven by the listing of U.S. spot ETFs, the U.S. presidential election, and Bitcoin reserve companies."
However, starting from early October 2025, this demand growth has fallen below the long-term trend line, indicating that the new buying pressure of this cycle has largely been absorbed by the market, and Bitcoin has thus lost its key support strength.
Based on the current weak situation, CryptoQuant believes that the downward risks of Bitcoin are gradually emerging, with "70,000 dollars" being the first major resistance.

Last Friday, the Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate to 0.75%, in line with market expectations, leading to a broad rise in U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rose from 85,000 to 88,000 USD, then traded in a narrow range over the entire weekend, with almost no fluctuation. This time, Japan's move can be categorized as "dovish rate hike"; the interest rate has increased, but the Governor of the Bank of Japan did not indicate that there would be continued rate hikes, stating that current rates are still relatively low. Therefore, the market expects that Japan will not significantly raise rates in the short term, easing tension and temporarily alleviating concerns over liquidity crunch. This is similar to the effect of the U.S. "hawkish rate cut", indicating that the two countries have clearly coordinated their policies and wording.
Several institutions have successively downgraded their outlook on cryptocurrency prices, including the fund company Fundstrat led by major ETH bull Tom Lee. Although Tom Lee himself predicts that Bitcoin and Ethereum will break new highs in January next year, Fundstrat

Author: David, Deep Tide TechFlow

On December 15, Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $85,616, a single-day drop of over 5%.
There were no significant explosions or negative events on this day, and on-chain data does not indicate any unusual selling pressure. If you only look at news from the cryptocurrency world, it's hard to find a "reasonable" explanation.
But on the same day, the gold price was $4,323 per ounce, down only $1 from the previous day.
One dropped by 5%, while the other barely moved.
If Bitcoin is really "digital gold", a tool for hedging against inflation and fiat currency depreciation, then its performance in the face of risk events should resemble gold more. However, this time its trend clearly resembles that of high Beta tech stocks on the Nasdaq.
What is driving this round of decline? The answer may be found in Tokyo.
The Butterfly Effect of Tokyo