——The market has shifted from "war pricing" to "negotiation pricing." At 3:00 a.m. Beijing time, a piece of news changed the direction of the global markets. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X, saying that to advance diplomatic efforts, he sincerely requested President Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks. He also asked Iran to "reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a gesture of goodwill during the corresponding two-week period." Pakistan's "bilateral request" is very clever, not only "asking" Trump to delay but also "asking" Iran to reciprocally open the strait for two weeks, giving both sides "face" and a "way out." It did not demand that Trump unconditionally withdraw his threats but used "diplomatic efforts need time" as an excuse; at the same time, it offered Iran a reciprocal condition—opening the strait, which is precisely Trump's core demand. If Iran agrees, Trump can claim that his "maximum pressure" has worked, allowing him to postpone strikes gracefully. Before this message appeared, there was no sign of any easing in Trump's words, even stating that "a civilization will be completely destroyed and never return." Iran, in response to Trump's threats, cut off direct communication with the U.S. Who would have thought that the final turning point came from a third party? The market's probability of an "explosion risk" was very high, but suddenly it was sharply reduced. Judging by the timing of the post, it seems more like a coordinated move with Trump because it saved the U.S. stock market. Just half an hour later, the White House responded, saying Trump had been informed of Pakistan's proposal to extend the deadline for Iran by two weeks and that a response would be made. This message rewrote the market trend, resulting in a textbook-level reversal: - U.S. stocks recovered most of their intraday losses, gold and U.S. Treasuries also rose together. - Oil prices plummeted, with U.S. crude falling below $110. - The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields declined together. Due to fears of the worst-case scenario, even minor positive news triggered excessive reactions. Three hours later (at 6:00 a.m. Beijing time), Trump posted: "I agree to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks, which will be a bilateral ceasefire agreement. We received a ten-point proposal from Iran, which we believe is a feasible basis for negotiations." After this news, oil prices further plummeted, with U.S. crude briefly dropping to $100. Although this news did not establish a trend, it created a "trading window"—reducing the market's short-term risk of out-of-control pricing, at least "for now, no need to make decisions today." But caution is needed: if negotiations stall within these two weeks, the market could experience a more severe double whammy than early this morning, because "the greater the hope, the greater the disappointment." #Gate广场四月发帖挑战