Economist: U.S. March CPI month-over-month may surge by 1%, and the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

DeepFlowTech · 2026-04-05T01:04:47+00:00

Economists expect the US March CPI to increase by 1% month-on-month, the largest single-month rise since 2022, mainly driven by rising gasoline prices. The core PCE price index has continued to rise, indicating that the inflation slowdown process has stalled, which may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

DeepFlowTech

2026-04-05 01:04:47

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Deep Tide TechFlow message. April 05, according to reports from Jintou Data, economists said that the sudden rise in gasoline prices that American consumers can feel in their day-to-day lives will be fully reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. It is expected that the U.S. March CPI will rise 1% month over month, which would be the largest single-month increase since 2022; core CPI could rise 0.3% month over month. Earlier, the Iran war pushed U.S. gas station gasoline prices up by about $1 per gallon.

One day before the CPI data is released, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will provide information about pre-war price pressures. Economists expect that the core PCE price index may rise 0.4% for the third consecutive month in February, indicating that even before the conflict broke out, the process of bringing inflation back down to more moderate levels had already stalled. Coupled with signs that the U.S. labor market is stabilizing, stubborn price pressures, and new inflation risks brought by the war in the Middle East, this helps explain why the Fed this year may find it difficult to cut interest rates.

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