Bitwise: Latest Draft of "CLARITY Act" Causes Circle to Plunge 20% - Circle's Future Valuation Under Review

Golden Finance reports that Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated that based on conservative assumptions—even considering recent concerns raised by the latest draft of the CLARITY Act—I expect Circle’s valuation to reach $75 billion by 2030. So far, interest income has not been the main driver of stablecoin growth. Currently, the vast majority of stablecoin holdings do not generate interest. The rapid rise of stablecoins is due to their ability to efficiently and reliably transfer funds worldwide—for trade settlements, as collateral for loans, as a substitute for unstable fiat currencies, and in many other scenarios.

Convenience is the core advantage of money, and this is where stablecoins excel. Currently, the average annual interest rate on regular US savings accounts is about 0.60%, with checking accounts at just 0.07%. People deposit money into these accounts not for interest. If the global financial system is increasingly migrating onto blockchain platforms, I expect stablecoins to play an increasingly important role in this transition, regardless of whether they offer interest.

Based on my simple estimate—$19 trillion market size, 25% market share, and 0.8% profit margin—after deducting distribution costs, Circle’s revenue could reach $3.8 billion by 2030, excluding other expenses. The company’s current operating costs are relatively low (about $144 million in 2025), which means even if these costs double or triple by 2030, approximately $2.7 billion in after-tax profit could still be realized. Using the current average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 (28x), Circle’s market value would be $75 billion.