Garrett Jin: Risk assets will remain under pressure until the Strait of Hormuz reopens

Gate News reports that on March 10, “BTC OG Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin posted on social media analyzing the impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on the market. He stated that before the March 9 rally at $85 per barrel, Brent crude pricing reflected a supply disruption lasting several days to two weeks; at $119.5 per barrel, the market had already begun to price in the possibility of supply disruption, but re-pricing for the full duration was just beginning.

Garrett Jin pointed out that the impact of the Hormuz crisis is transmitted through independent yet mutually reinforcing layers. The result is not only an increase in risk aversion but also systemic changes in cross-asset correlations, geographic risk distribution, and market willingness to price the duration of extreme events. Until a reliable path for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz emerges, risk assets will remain under pressure. Even if the crisis eases, rebuilding the insurance mechanisms themselves will take 3 to 6 weeks.

He believes that the upside scenario for risk assets involves the Strait of Hormuz reopening, or a ceasefire reached through successful summits, or other potential positive events; the downside scenario (diplomatic failure, long-term closure of the strait) has no historical pricing reference. In either case, recent trends show a rise in the duration premium for oil, interest rates, and inflation expectations, and risk assets will remain under pressure until feasible solutions emerge.