Will there be a third wave of downward trend in BTC???

First, the result: there definitely will be, but not in the short term.
The next downward trend in Bitcoin should be driven by a decline in the US stock market. Major AI leaders in the US stock market have over-invested in AI, leading to a significant reduction in free cash flow, yet stock prices remain high, resulting in a very high true PE ratio. Profits and huge investments have not led to increased profits, and there is still no clear way to profit from AI. On the liquidity front, the yen rate hikes and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction are constantly threatening liquidity.
I also believe the US stock market is nearing a correction. Since the bottoming out of tariffs last year, the S&P 500 has rebounded from 4,800 to 7,000, a 45% increase. It has been hovering around 6,800-7,000 points for nearly three months without breaking through. In the past two midterm election years, the market dropped over 20%. Although Trump is supporting the market this time, I estimate it will still fall by about 10%.
Some people say Bitcoin will definitely break below 60,000, claiming that 60,000 is the bottom. That's hilarious—if the top drops to the bottom, it only takes four months to fall? I think it will break below 60,000, possibly lower, maybe below 50,000, returning to the 40,000-50,000 range, similar to the price after the BlackRock ETF listing. #比特币创下近一月内新高