#比特币下一步怎么走？ Historically, Bitcoin has peaked several times and then fallen by about 75%. Based on the current 120,000, that's only a 50% drop. If we look at the ratio, isn't the decline still not enough? Historical reference can be used for guidance, but it doesn't necessarily repeat exactly. At least for now, the price hasn't fully stopped falling; at least on the weekly chart, there are no engulfing yin-yang candles to rescue the market. Therefore, we must remain cautious when going long. There are two main ways to go long: one is to buy after a breakout above 71,900 with a small retracement, and the other is to wait for a deep pullback without destroying the upward pattern from 59,909 to 72,276. The swing trading strategy is as follows:

- A large short at 78,800 expecting a decline of over 10,000 points, with a focus on a pullback to 62,000-62,500 for a swing long, looking for at least a 5,000 rebound.
Regarding long-term long positions in Bitcoin, it's currently difficult to determine precise levels. However, 57,777 and 52,555 are both potential swing long positions in the future, but not bottom-fishing points. These are areas where a significant rebound may occur before June, consistent with the idea of a rebound around 60,000 USD. For long-term entry points in Bitcoin, we need to reference Ethereum, using Ethereum's price to gauge Bitcoin's bottom.
Ethereum shows more obvious volatility, having tested the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement twice: once from 2,395 to 1,740 during the decline, and once from 1,740 to 2,151 during the rally. These are oscillations between a rise and a fall, and in such a range-bound market, the probability of double tops and double bottoms is high. Therefore, first identify the previous double top at around 2,150 and the double bottom near 1,740. We only need to lock in the range of 1,740-2,150 for high sell and low buy.
The key midpoint is 1,890, currently in the upper half of the oscillation: 1,890-2,150. If it breaks below 1,890, the price will continue in the lower half of the oscillation, with the range being 1,890-1,740.
For the trading strategy in the second half of February, define it as: oscillation. Short at 2,140, long at 1,730, and do not participate in the middle swings. The risk is 50, with targets of 200-300 USD on both sides. The minimum risk-reward ratio is 1:4. This is a range trading approach, but we must also consider the possibility of a breakout above 2,150 or below 1,740. A breakout above 2,150 would focus on short positions at 2,370-2,390; a breakdown below 1,740 would suggest long positions at 1,535 USD. Opportunities to open positions are limited, especially when the price is in a vacuum between bullish and bearish zones, with risks outweighing rewards due to inconsistent movements and lack of strong momentum.
Regarding the long-term, key support levels on the weekly chart are at 1,750, 1,535, and 1,065 USD. The first rebound from 1,750 has already completed, but it hasn't fully stopped the decline yet. The key level separating bulls and bears is 2,150. The large range is 1,750-2,150. We only consider swing trades after a breakout of this range; otherwise, it remains in consolidation. Pay attention to long-term buying opportunities around 1,065-1,110, and when Ethereum drops into this zone, it will also be a long-term buying opportunity for Bitcoin. As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin's long-term opportunities depend on Ethereum's confirmation.