⚠Today at 4:30 PM, how will the US inflation data announced impact the markets?

US inflation data (especially CPI) is one of the data points that creates the highest volatility in global financial markets. Its effect occurs through this basic mechanism:
Expectation: 2.5%
Why Does It React So Strongly?
1. The Fed's 2% inflation target remains the reference point. At the beginning of 2026, inflation is around 2.5–2.7% → still above the target.
2. Every 0.1–0.2 percentage point deviation can change the Fed's expected total interest rate cuts in 2026 by 25–50 basis points.
3. High inflation → borrowing costs increase → corporate profit margins tighten → stock multiples (P/E) decrease.
4. Low inflation → "more aggressive rate cuts" → risk assets (stocks, crypto, commodities) rally.
Current Situation (February 2026)
January 2026 CPI expectation
- annual ~2.5%,
- monthly +0.3% or so).
The market has been pricing in "Fed keeps rates steady in March, starts cutting in June" in recent months.
If the data comes in around 2.3–2.4% low → risk appetite increases, the dollar falls, BIST & TRY react positively.
If it comes in high around 2.7–2.9% → dollar/TRY rises, BIST falls, gold mixed (dollar gains vs ounce losses).
In short:
US inflation data directly affects markets through interest rate expectations. The bigger the deviation from expectations, the more intense the movement. Even in 2026, this data remains the "most important monthly indicator." While monitoring the data, paying attention to core CPI (core CPI) and expectation deviations, as well as the subsequent comments of Fed members, is useful.
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