#我在Gate广场过新年 Reviewing Bitcoin's Bear Market Cycle: What Price Levels Signal a Bottom?

Early morning on February 6, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, the entire crypto community was thrown into panic. From the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, Bitcoin has already dropped 52%. But if you look back at Bitcoin’s 15-year price history, you'll find a harsh reality: a 52% decline is just a "drop in the bucket" historically.

1. The "Drop Pattern" in Bitcoin Bear Markets
Let’s start with some data (shown below: this table reveals a clear pattern: the maximum decline in each bear cycle has been decreasing. From 94% to 87%, then to 84%, 77%, Bitcoin’s "bear market standard" is narrowing by about 5-10 percentage points each cycle. More precisely, this decreasing pattern: 2011→2013: decrease by 7 percentage points (94%→87%) 2013→2017: decrease by 3 percentage points (87%→84%) 2017→2021: decrease by 7 percentage points (84%→77%) The average decrease per cycle is about 5-7 percentage points. Why? As market cap grows, volatility naturally decreases! In 2011, Bitcoin’s market cap was only a few hundred million dollars; a "whale" selling off could crash the price by 94%. By 2026, even if Bitcoin halves from its peak to $60,000, its market cap will still exceed $1 trillion. To cause a trillion-dollar asset to drop another 30-40%, the sell volume needed is thousands of times larger than in 2011.

Institutional Entry Provides a "Liquidity Buffer"
Before 2018, Bitcoin holders were mainly retail investors and early miners. During panic, everyone would sell off simultaneously, with no "buying side." After 2022, institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale hold hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin through ETFs. These institutions wouldn’t panic-sell after a single crash; their presence acts as a "safety net" in the market. According to Bloomberg data, by the end of January 2026, the total holdings of US Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded 900,000 BTC, worth over $70 billion. The "lock-in effect" of these holdings directly reduces the available supply for sale.

Bitcoin’s Evolution from "Speculative Asset" to "Asset Class"
2011-2013: Bitcoin was still a geek’s toy, driven entirely by emotion.
2017-2021: Bitcoin started being regarded as "digital gold," but lacked a clear valuation anchor.
Post-2025: Bitcoin ETFs get approved, the GENIUS Act promotes stablecoin legislation, Trump proposes a "strategic reserve" plan. Whether these policies are fully implemented or not, Bitcoin has shifted from a "marginal asset" to a "mainstream financial asset." This evolution results in reduced volatility.

Halving Cycles’ Supply Shock Weakening
Historically, Bitcoin’s price was mainly influenced by the 4-year halving cycle, where new supply decreases by 50% every four years.
2012’s first halving cut daily new issuance from 7,200 to 3,600 BTC, creating a huge supply shock.
After the 2024 fourth halving, daily new issuance drops from 900 to 450 BTC. Although the percentage remains the same, the absolute reduction is small, and the market impact diminishes.

The "Deflationary Effect" on Supply is Weakening, and "Speculative Frenzy" on Demand is Cooling—Both Contribute to Narrower Volatility.

2. If History Repeats, Where Is the "Bottom" This Time?
Based on the "decreasing pattern," we can project three scenarios:
Scenario 1: Optimistic — Decline narrows to 65%
If this cycle’s maximum decline is 65% (a 12 percentage point drop from the previous 77%, slightly above the historical average decrease):
Bottom price = 126,000 × (1 - 65%) = $44,100
From $60,000 down to $44,100 still leaves 26% room to fall.
Supporting reasons: Institutional holdings hit record highs, ETFs provide strong "buy support." The Federal Reserve is hawkish, but the market has already priced in rate cuts in June 2026, ahead of the July expectations. Trump’s March 7 White House crypto summit could release policy positives. Stablecoins, despite negative growth, still have a TVL (Total Value Locked) above $230 billion.
Risks: Highly leveraged traders like Strategy could be forced to sell, triggering a chain reaction. Trump’s "strategic reserve" pledge has yet to be fulfilled, which could cause market patience to wear thin.
If you believe this scenario: start accumulating below $50,000, with increased buying around $45,000.

Scenario 2: Neutral — Decline of 70-72%
If this cycle’s maximum decline is 70-72% (strictly following the "5-7 percentage point decrease" pattern):
Bottom price (70%) = 126,000 × (1 - 70%) = $37,800
Bottom price (72%) = 126,000 × (1 - 72%) = $35,280
From $60,000 down to $35,280–$37,800 leaves 37-41% room to fall.
Supporting reasons: Fits the historical pattern, neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. The current macro environment (rate cut expectations + balance sheet reduction fears) is comparable to 2018. The $35,000–$38,000 level aligns with Bitcoin’s "200-week moving average," historically a strong support.
Risks: If the US economy enters recession, all risk assets will face indiscriminate sell-offs. An AI bubble burst or a tech stock crash could drag Bitcoin down further.
If you believe this scenario: keep your main capital ready below $40,000, with a "heavy position" between $35,000 and $45,000.

Scenario 3: Pessimistic — Decline back to 75-80%
If "this time is really different," and market structure collapses, causing declines back to the 2017-2022 average:
Bottom price (75%) = 126,000 × (1 - 75%) = $31,500
Bottom price (80%) = 126,000 × (1 - 80%) = $25,200
From current $70,000 down to $25,200–$31,500 would be a 50% further drop.
Supporting reasons: The February 6 "triple crash" (stocks, gold, Bitcoin all plunging simultaneously) shows Bitcoin’s "safe-haven" attribute is broken. ETFs have absorbed large amounts of chips, but that also means institutions can "sell at will." Trump’s tariffs triggered a global trade war, risking a worldwide recession. Talent in the crypto industry is leaving, and VC funding is retreating—industry confidence is collapsing.
If you believe this scenario: liquidate now, wait for a complete crash below $30,000, or keep only 10-20% of your position and "gamble" while pulling out the rest.

3. Don’t Fear Missing Out
Some people worry: what if I miss the chance to buy at the bottom of this bear market?
The answer is simple: chase the rally or wait for the next cycle.
Cryptocurrency isn’t your only chance to turn your life around. If you think it is, you’ve already lost.
In 2015, those who missed buying at $150 still had a chance at $3,200 in 2018.
In 2018, those who missed $3,200 still had a chance at $15,000 in 2022. But only if you survive until the next cycle. Don’t give up on the market just because of one failed "all-in" attempt.
Also, most people only care about "at what price to buy" but ignore "when to sell."
Here are three cases:
Case 1: Old Zhang bought heavily at $3,200 in December 2018. By June 2019, Bitcoin hit $13,000, and Zhang thought "bull market is here," so he didn’t sell. By December 2019, it fell back to $7,000. Zhang thought "it’s over," and sold at a loss. Final result: less than double profit, and he missed the $69,000 peak in 2021.
Case 2: Xiao Li also bought at $3,200 but set a rule: "Never sell until it hits $50,000." He endured all fluctuations in 2019-2020. In April 2021, Bitcoin reached $63,000, and Xiao Li sold 50%, locking in 15x profit. The remaining 50% held until November 2021 at $69,000, then sold. Final result: an average of 18x profit.
Case 3: Old Wang started dollar-cost averaging $1,000 monthly from December 2018, regardless of price. After 3 years, he stopped in December 2021. His average cost was about $12,000 (bought cheaper early, more expensive later). In November 2021, when Bitcoin hit $69,000, he sold all, making about 4.7x profit. Final result: not as high as Xiao Li, but he didn’t need to "timing" the market—simplest to execute.
These cases show that "bottom fishing" isn’t crucial; holding steady is. If you don’t plan to HODL forever, setting a "take profit" plan in advance is best. DCA may not be glamorous, but it’s the most suitable for ordinary investors. Most people won’t buy at the bottom and sell at the top; gradual buying and selling is always a better approach.

Summary: Bear markets are the opportunity for the common people to turn their fortunes around
In 2011, those who bought Bitcoin at $2 have already achieved 30,000x returns (even based on the recent bottom of $60,000).
In 2015, buying at $150 yields 400x.
In 2018, buying at $3,200 yields 18.75x.
In 2022, buying at $15,000 yields 4x.
Every bear cycle is a redistribution of wealth. Those who chased the top in frenzy get washed out; those who panic-sell at the bottom give up their chips. The real winners are those who dare to accumulate gradually when everyone else is hopeless.
As long as you believe Bitcoin’s price will go higher and even higher.
In 2018, when Bitcoin dropped to $3,200, some said "Bitcoin is dead."
In 2022, when Bitcoin fell to $15,000, many exclaimed the crypto industry’s end.
In February 2026, when Bitcoin drops below $60,000, the world will ask: "Is this really different this time?"
If you believe "history repeats," then the next 6-12 months are among the few moments in your life to buy "relatively low" and "future" at the same time.
Whether you believe it or not, that’s your choice.