Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Drops Below 30 for Fourth Time in History

The Bitcoin RSI against gold has dropped below the 30 mark for only the fourth time in history, suggesting that BTC may be oversold compared to XAU.

This structure recently played out amid the divergence in performance between Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, and gold (XAU), the leading precious metal. Specifically, while BTC has failed to impress since Q4 2025, XAU has leveraged the fearful environment to post rapid gains, consistently setting new highs over the last few months.

With Bitcoin down 22.7% since Q4 2025 and gold up 31% within the same period, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the BTC/XAU pair has consistently slipped lower after dropping from the 62.18 peak in July 2025. This persistent drop led to the decline below 30 for the first time since the 2022 crypto bear market.

Key Points

• While Bitcoin has struggled since Q4 2025, gold has continued to see gains, recently crossing the $5,000 mark to set new highs.
• Amid this divergence in performance, the BTC/XAU pair has collapsed considerably, leading to a drop in the RSI.
• This consistent drop resulted in the weekly RSI slipping below 30 for the first time in 2022.
• Before now, the BTC/XAU 1W RSI had only dropped below 30 three times in history, and it represented the floor for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin RSI Against Gold Slips

Specifically, this trend picked up in August 2025 after the BTC/XAU pair dropped from the high of 37. From here, Bitcoin declined to 29 ounces of gold in early October 2025 before recovering to 32 ounces a week later. However, as Q4 2025 introduced fresh bearish pressure for the crypto market, the BTC/XAU pair collapsed again and has since dropped to 17 at press time

Amid the downtrend, the 1W RSI has continued to drop since reaching 62.18 in July 2025. Today, the RSI sits at 27.92, representing its lowest reading since June 2022, shortly after the Terra ecosystem implosion.

Historical Data Sends Encouraging Signals

Van de Poppe highlighted that this decline below 30 has only happened three times since Bitcoin launched. Notably, the structure has only played out during bear markets, and each time marked the bottom for Bitcoin

Specifically, the first time this happened was in January 2015, when the RSI dropped to 27.62. This coincided with the BTC bottom price of $152. From here, Bitcoin saw a recovery push. The structure emerged again in 2018, when the RSI declined to 29.21 in December, coinciding with the bear market bottom of $3,122 at the time. Again, BTC recovered from this low.

Notably, during the 2022 bear market, the weekly RSI crashed below 30, hitting a low of 26.62 in June. While Bitcoin still saw further declines after this, the steeper drops occurred due to the FTX collapse in November 2022, as prices hit new lows around $15,632. From here, BTC recovered again.

With Bitcoin now trading for $87,681, van de Poppe has expressed conviction that this time may not be different, suggesting that a recovery for BTC may not be far behind. However, past successes do not guarantee future results. As a result, investors should not make investment decisions based on this commentary.