#DOGEETF上市纳斯达克 Why can't Elon Reeve Musk move the needle on Dogecoin?

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a profound de-idolization process.
According to the latest data from CoinMarketCap as of January 2026, the market capitalization of Dogecoin has fallen from its all-time high of $88 billion in May 2021 to about $9.8 billion, a decline of nearly 89%. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume has sharply decreased from the peak of $17 billion to approximately $800 million, with liquidity shrinking by over 95%. This market performance prompts industry observers to consider: why does Elon Reeve Musk, once regarded as the "Dogecoin spiritual leader," seem to be gradually losing his influence as an engine for this meme coin?

Market Logic Behind the Data Shift
Market analysis firm Messari's Q4 2025 cryptocurrency market report shows that Dogecoin's 24-hour price volatility has decreased from a high of 47% in 2021 to around 8% currently. This change indicates that market expectations for this asset are shifting from pure speculation to a more rational risk pricing framework. Goldman Sachs' digital asset research division recently stated: "The liquidity premium for meme coins is undergoing a comprehensive re-evaluation. During the market frenzy of 2021, the correlation coefficient between social media attention and price performance reached 0.75, which was considered a typical feature of 'sentiment-based pricing.' But by 2025, this indicator has fallen below 0.15, indicating that market sentiment's influence on prices is being replaced by more fundamental valuation factors."
On-chain data platform Nansen's data further confirms this trend. The number of active addresses for Dogecoin has dropped from an average of 1.35 million daily in May 2021 to about 150,000 in January 2026, an 89% reduction. The number of large holders (holding over 10,000 coins) has also decreased from 48,000 at its peak to around 6,500. More notably, the proportion of long-term holders (holding for over a year) has increased from 12% in 2021 to 38% now, reflecting a behavioral shift from short-term speculation to long-term holding among market participants.

Strategic Adjustments by Institutional Actors
The behavioral changes in the crypto market are not only reflected in price data but also directly in the asset allocation strategies of mainstream institutions. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, explicitly stated in its Q3 2025 "Digital Asset Allocation Outlook": "As the crypto market matures, institutional investors' asset allocation frameworks are undergoing systematic transformation. Meme coins, due to their lack of fundamental support and over-reliance on community consensus, no longer meet the risk-return criteria of mainstream institutions." The report further analyzes that institutional focus has shifted from price volatility to actual use cases, governance transparency, and connections to the real economy. Under this evaluation framework, meme coins' attractiveness naturally declines significantly.
Another notable case is the native crypto hedge fund Paradigm. The firm held about $450 million worth of meme coin exposure in 2021, but during its asset rebalancing from 2023 to 2025, it reduced this type of asset from 12.3% to 0.5%. Paradigm co-founder Fred Ehrsam stated at an industry forum in summer 2025: "The crypto market is experiencing a critical maturation phase. Institutional capital is shifting from purely speculative assets to blockchain infrastructure projects with real technological value and sustainable business models. This shift is an inevitable result of market rationalization."
According to the 2025 industry report from crypto custody provider Fireblocks, the share of meme coins in its institutional-grade crypto assets under custody has fallen below 0.2%, down from over 7% in 2021. More notably, the report notes that over 80% of institutional clients have completely removed meme coins from their active portfolios.

Generational Evolution of Risk Appetite Framework
Market observers have noted that the risk appetite structure of crypto investors is undergoing a profound generational shift. CoinShares' 2025 investor survey shows that over 70% of new entrants into the crypto market between 2023 and 2025 have backgrounds in traditional finance or related industries. This group’s investment decision-making framework differs significantly from early tech-geek investors and retail speculators. They are more inclined to use traditional valuation models, risk analysis tools, and portfolio management principles to evaluate digital assets, rather than relying solely on community consensus, social media hype, or celebrity endorsements.
Morgan Stanley's head of digital asset research wrote in a fall 2025 report: "We are witnessing the complete process of 'de-idolization' in the crypto market. The strong correlation between individual influence and asset prices is weakening, replaced by more traditional fundamental analysis frameworks. This trend is especially evident in the meme coin category, as these assets inherently lack substantive content for fundamental evaluation."
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) also indirectly confirms this trend in its November 2025 "Global Digital Asset Market Development Report." The report states that overall market volatility in cryptocurrencies is converging significantly and that their correlation with traditional financial markets is steadily increasing. This change indicates that external investor behavior patterns are penetrating deeper into the crypto space, pushing the market toward more mature and standardized risk pricing mechanisms. The report further analyzes that the 'de-idolization' process in crypto essentially results from market participants shifting from early highly dispersed, emotion-driven investors to more concentrated, professional, and institutionalized investors. In this process, asset classes that rely on personal influence rather than fundamentals will naturally face pressure in their market performance.

Impact of Macroeconomic Environment and Regulatory Framework
The structural changes in the crypto market are not isolated but are closely related to broader macroeconomic conditions and regulatory evolution. The IMF's 2025 "Global Financial Stability Report" dedicates a chapter to the maturation of digital asset markets. The report notes: "Regulatory agencies in major economies are establishing clearer and more consistent frameworks for digital asset regulation. This process enhances market transparency and compliance costs, prompting market participants to reassess their investment strategies. In this environment, meme coins lacking fundamental support face greater market pressure." The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) implemented the "Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation" (MiCA) in 2025, explicitly classifying meme coins as 'unregulated assets,' limiting mainstream institutional inclusion.
The SEC's enforcement actions in 2025 also send similar signals: digital assets overly reliant on marketing rather than substantive business are at higher regulatory risk. These developments mean that institutional investors must incorporate regulatory compliance costs and uncertainties into their risk models when evaluating digital assets. For meme coins without clear business models or real-world applications, this regulatory environment adds additional valuation pressure.

Deep Logic of Structural Transformation
The structural shift in the crypto market is not accidental but a necessary stage of industry development. From a microstructure perspective, the composition of liquidity providers in the crypto market is undergoing fundamental change.
According to the 2025 industry white paper from digital asset market maker Wintermute, institutional liquidity providers now account for over 65% of trading volume in crypto markets, up from less than 25% in 2021. These institutional providers employ more complex and systematic risk management strategies, with trading behaviors based more on quantitative models and fundamental analysis rather than sentiment or social network signals.
On-chain analysis platform Chainalysis' 2025 annual report shows that the current price discovery mechanism in crypto markets is experiencing a profound shift from "emotion-driven" to "information-driven." Specifically, the sensitivity coefficient of asset prices to social media hype has decreased from 0.85 in 2021 to 0.12 now, while sensitivity to macroeconomic policies, industry regulation trends, and project technological progress has increased significantly. This shift indicates that markets are developing more rational information processing and price reflection mechanisms.
Research from risk management firm Glassnode further points out that the volatility structure of crypto markets is converging toward that of traditional financial markets. For example, Bitcoin's realized volatility correlation with the S&P 500 has risen from 0.15 in 2021 to 0.42 in 2025. This change suggests that crypto markets are being integrated into the broader global financial risk pricing system rather than existing as a completely independent "alternative universe."

Future Outlook: A New Market Pattern of Rationality
The structural transformation of the crypto market implies that future digital asset markets will increasingly resemble the operation logic and evaluation standards of traditional finance. For Dogecoin and other meme coins, this trend means they must reposition themselves in the new market environment. Meme projects that can find practical use cases, establish sustainable business models, and improve governance structures may find their place in the transformed market. Conversely, projects still relying solely on community consensus and social media hype will inevitably face shrinking market space.
JPMorgan's chief digital asset strategist wrote in a forward-looking report in December 2025: "We expect the maturation process of the crypto market to continue. By the end of 2026, institutional investors' share of market trading volume could exceed 50%. This structural shift will accelerate the淘汰 of purely speculative and sentiment-driven assets, including some meme coins." The report further states that successful future digital asset projects will feature key characteristics such as clear value propositions, measurable business metrics, transparent governance, compliant operations, and substantive connections to the real economy or existing digital ecosystems.
Under this evaluation framework, the survival space for traditional meme coins will be redefined.

Conclusion: The Market Will Ultimately Return to Fundamentals
The de-idolization process in the crypto market is fundamentally an inevitable evolution from early frenzy to mature rationality. While this process challenges some assets that rely heavily on personal influence, from a long-term industry development perspective, it is a necessary growth phase. As market noise gradually subsides, rational valuation frameworks will dominate price discovery. For Dogecoin and other meme coins, this signifies the end of an era—the era where social media influence could directly drive prices is gradually fading. But for the overall maturation and sustainability of the crypto market, this is undoubtedly a painful but essential step. As Wall Street investors have long known: "Markets will ultimately return to fundamentals." The same applies in crypto—only here, 'fundamentals' refer to the practical application prospects of blockchain technology, project governance quality, connections to the real economy, and strategic positioning within the broader digital economy ecosystem, rather than simple social media influence or celebrity endorsements.

The 2026 crypto market is writing a new chapter in this transformation.