#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Market Analysis Today

If we compare the past cryptocurrency market to a “license-free street vendor” running around the streets, whose stall could be taken away by city management at any moment, then a series of recent news essentially announces that this vendor has not only obtained a business license but even the city management team is now personally stepping in to help him promote his business. The most significant news is the joint meeting scheduled for January 27 between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the past, these two agencies were like “cats and dogs” in the crypto world, fighting over who should regulate and how to penalize. Now, they are actually sitting together to discuss how to implement Trump’s “Global Crypto Capital” agenda. This indicates a fundamental reversal in regulatory logic: from the previous “arrest first, then talk” approach to “set rules first, then act.” This shift from “enforcement” to “legislation” marks the ultimate watershed for the industry’s transition from the fringes to the mainstream.
This change in direction is most directly reflected in “clearing old accounts.” The SEC has revoked the civil lawsuit against the Gi exchange, and it’s a complete withdrawal—meaning they are no longer allowed to sue in the future. This was almost unimaginable in the past. Over the past few years, the SEC has been like a strict instructor with a magnifying glass, nitpicking at any financial product you dare to launch, labeling it as “illegal securities.” Now, the instructor has put down the baton and returned the confiscated teaching tools. This “righting of past wrongs” sends a very strong signal: the era of regulation through lawsuits is over.
Meanwhile, Grayscale has seized the opportunity to submit an ETF application for BNB. If Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are considered “appetizers,” then a BNB ETF—an asset with strong platform attributes—would be akin to the official recognition of exchange tokens’ legitimacy. This is not only a big gift for BNB but also opens a door for the entire industry to access traditional financial markets.
Speaking of traditional finance, BNB is not resting either; they plan to relaunch the “stock token” trading that was halted four years ago. Simply put, it allows you to buy stocks of companies like Apple or Tesla on a crypto exchange, just like buying Bitcoin. This is essentially a “dimensionality reduction attack.” Previously, to buy U.S. stocks, you had to open accounts, exchange currencies, and endure cross-border transfer hassles; now, if you can directly buy stocks with stablecoins, cryptocurrencies truly become a bridge connecting to real-world assets. Although current data shows that out of last year’s $35 trillion in stablecoin settlements, only 1% was actually used for real-world purchases like bubble tea or payroll, with the remaining 99% still circulating within the crypto space, this highlights enormous potential. As stocks, bonds, and even bank licenses (such as Trump-related World Liberty Bank) start trading on crypto rails, that 1% of real-world applications will rapidly snowball.
Finally, we need to look at the macro-level “money flow.” Silver prices broke through $100, hitting a record high, which is a big event in the investment circle. Usually, with “old money” like gold and silver rising first, followed by “digital gold” like Bitcoin leading the rally, and then various altcoins going wild. Silver’s surge often indicates that there is an overflow of idle funds in the market. Coupled with Arthur Hayes’ mention of the yen exchange rate logic—if the Federal Reserve starts easing to stabilize global exchange rates, then for assets like Bitcoin that are extremely sensitive to liquidity, it’s like pouring gasoline on a fire. The current situation is: the policy “straitjacket” has been removed, the “connectivity bridge” has been built, and the macro “great flood” is approaching. We are standing at the crossroads of an old era ending and a new order beginning.