#美联储主席人选预测 According to the latest information, as of January 23, 2026, the forecast for the Federal Reserve Chair candidate is as follows:

Top Candidates and Probabilities

Kevin Warsh is currently the leading candidate in the prediction market, with a win rate of approximately 58%-62%. He previously served as a Federal Reserve Board member (2006-2011), performed notably during the financial crisis, has close ties to the Trump camp, and has pledged to cooperate with rate cuts, making him more likely to gain Senate approval.

Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, has recently seen his support soar to about 17%-20%. He advocates for rate cuts, but at a lower magnitude than Trump demands, lacks direct Federal Reserve experience, but is rich in market experience and is viewed as a potential dark horse.

Christopher Waller, currently a Federal Reserve Board member, has a win rate of about 13%-15%. He supports rate cuts but emphasizes that policy should be data-driven. He is considered a more cautious choice, with a relatively neutral political stance, which may not meet Trump’s "loyalty" requirements.

Kevin Hassett, who was once a popular candidate, has seen his chances drop to about 6% due to concerns over his close relationship with Trump. He advocates for rate cuts but has been questioned about potentially sacrificing the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Overall, Kevin Warsh is currently the most likely candidate, but Trump’s decision remains uncertain. If Warsh is ultimately nominated, it may satisfy Trump’s short-term demand for rate cuts, but in the long run, his policy stance could adjust based on economic data. If Rick Rieder is elected, it could bring more market-oriented policies, but he will face challenges in Senate confirmation.