There are three very critical time points in December, and the market movement over the next three weeks will basically revolve around these three events. Let me briefly summarize them for you:

First: December 11, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Originally, the market expected that there would be no rate cut in December, but now the probability of a rate cut has been hyped up to around 87%.

Second: December 19, the Bank of Japan interest rate decision. The market had always believed that the Bank of Japan would not raise rates in December, but earlier this week, the governor suddenly made a suggestive remark, leading everyone to generally believe that a rate hike on the 19th is highly likely.

Third: December 26, the year-end “massive” Bitcoin options expiry. This is the most important day for the entire options market: it’s both the Q4 quarterly expiry and the last expiry of the year, with a notional value as high as $23 billion, which is a huge volume.

The first two are major news events. Normally, a Fed rate cut or a BOJ rate hike would be enough to influence the market, but now there is a simultaneous deviation in expectations for both, so the uncertainty here will be even greater.

The third is an options structure issue. Based on current data, the biggest pain point for Bitcoin options is at $100,000; however, it will be very difficult for Bitcoin to break out and hold above $100,000 in December; and there are also institutions that have put in put protection around $84,000. A few days ago, after BTC fell below $84,000, instead of consolidating at the bottom, it quickly bounced back, which is also likely related to this point.