$BTC My current plan:


We’re pricing in rate cuts too quickly, which suggests the market is likely to slow down. At this point, price action almost needs to range or show some downside.
We still have two weeks until FOMC, leaving plenty of time for the market to chop. Probabilistically, it makes more sense for momentum to cool off, especially since most of this week’s upward move already played out.
Given that, there’s a strong possibility that we simply chop into Monday, set a Monday high (next week), and then retrace back below 90K toward the 88K area. In other words, we might just keep oscillating near the highs for now.
Since FOMC / rate cuts are considered “bullish,” it makes more sense for the market to rally into the event rather than form a bottom right beforehand. So the structure I’m expecting is:
Retest lower (around 88K) about a week before FOMC
Then rally into the event, sweeping highs and liquidity
and ultimately, FOMC becomes a classic "sell the news" pivot.
Overall, I think a retest of 88K is highly likely. Based on my calculations, this scenario has roughly a 75% probability. Either this plays out, or we somehow keep pumping straight into FOMC for two weeks,which doesn’t align well with the timing or typical market behavior.$GT #BitcoinPriceWatch #ShowMyAlphaPoints #CryptoMarketRebounds
BTC0.2%
GT0.58%
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