Bitcoin has been quite volatile lately. From a macro perspective, global risk sentiment is low, with both the stock market and the crypto market pulling back simultaneously. In November, it dropped about 21%, falling from a high of 126,000 to just over 80,000, and is now stable around 87,000. The Fed's rate cut expectations have risen, but institutional funds saw over 200 million in outflows, and leveraged liquidations have added to the chaos. However, historically, after this kind of capitulation, the probability of a rebound is high—there's a 90-100% chance the low won't be broken. The long-term bull market is still intact, with inflation and geopolitical risks pushing it toward 100,000.

Strategy-wise, don't chase highs in the short term; wait for the 85,000 support to hold before taking a small long position, and set a stop loss at 82,000. For the mid-term, focus on holding positions and diversify into stablecoins for hedging. For the long term, use dollar-cost averaging—buy a fixed amount every month and sleep well without watching the market.

Have fun, but don't empty your wallet!