2025/11/7/BTC

Macro / The number of job cuts by Challenger in the US in October hit the highest level for the same period in over twenty years. Combined with market doubts about the return on investment in AI and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, US stocks and cryptocurrencies were sold off, and the panic index VIX briefly broke through 20.

The continuous selling pressure in the technology/spots market has led to an imbalance in market structure, and the legislation of the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" has almost become a foregone conclusion. In the longer cycle, Bitcoin has approached the oversold area, and some indicators like RSI have shown signs of stabilization, but there has not yet been a clear signal for a stop in the decline. Since the beginning of October, the net inflow of ETFs has significantly contracted, combined with Bitcoin breaking below the 200-day moving average and a decline in financing rates, this contraction phenomenon may be a key factor in whether Bitcoin can continue to maintain its strength in the future.

Strategy / Combining short-term signals, today we still need to maintain a short position with a rebound space of about 0.5%. Since yesterday's orders have not yet ended, as shown in the figure, everyone’s strategy should be determined based on their own situation. Currently, I need to address my own issues first.