Odaily Planet Daily reports that in February, US ADP employment figures and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI both exceeded expectations, indicating that the job market, which the Federal Reserve is more concerned about, is becoming more stable. The Fed has also signaled that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Coupled with soaring domestic energy prices due to the war, market expectations for the next rate cut have been pushed back to around September. If the February non-farm payrolls perform modestly or are overshadowed by the war, under the foreseeable scenario of a rebound in inflation, market expectations for the Fed's first rate cut will extend into the third quarter.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi, the US ADP employment change in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025, surpassing market expectations of 50,000.

On March 4th, the United States will release the February ADP employment figures. Twelve institutions' expectations for the "small non-farm" data range from 40,000 to 75,000, with overall expectations being relatively optimistic.

Next week, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran will increase market uncertainty. Key macroeconomic data include US Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment figures, and the Federal Reserve Beige Book. Additionally, the Nasdaq index failed to reach a new high, and concerns about the profitability of AI technology have arisen, leading to cautious investor sentiment.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to the ADP Weekly Employment Report, during the four weeks ending February 7, the average weekly increase in employment in the U.S. private sector was 12,750 people. (Jin10)

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to ADP report data, in the four weeks ending January 24, the average weekly increase in employment in the U.S. private sector was 6,500 people. (Jin10)

ChainCatcher News reports that U.S. Treasury yields fell during European trading hours as markets focus on the U.S. January labor market data, which is postponed until Wednesday. Prior to that, the weekly ADP private sector employment data is set to be released. DHF Capital S.A. analyst Bas Kuyman stated that these data could further reinforce market expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Any data that falls short of expectations could intensify market caution and put pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that in the United States, January ADP employment increased by 22,000, compared to an expected 48,000. (Jin10)

According to independent research institutions' forecasts, ADP employment will increase by 30,000 in January, with the growth slowing down and expected to be significantly lower than non-farm payrolls, which are projected to grow by 85,000. ADP data continues to underperform compared to non-farm payrolls, especially in the service sector.

The US January ADP employment change will be announced tonight at 21:15, with the previous value at +41,000. Most institutions predict data between 10,000 and 65,000, with the highest forecast at 65,000 and the lowest at 10,000.