Golden Ten Data August 4th News, Barclays stated that we now expect the Federal Reserve FOMC to cut interest rates three times in September, November, and December this year, each time by 25 basis points. We assume that the labor market will show continued resilience in the August report, and the unemployment rate will stop rising. Based on this assumption, we currently consider a 50 basis point rate cut in September to be unreasonable. However, if the unemployment rate continues to rise, it will raise concerns about the labor market cooling faster than expected. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the unemployment rate to gradually decline to 4.2%, and inflation forecasts to remain unchanged. We continue to expect the FOMC to cut interest rates three times in March, June, and September next year, and we expect concerns about a lack of further progress in inflation in the second half of 2025 to cause the FOMC to pause rate cuts after the federal funds rate reaches the range of 3.75-4.00%. In the long run, we continue to believe that the neutral interest rate level is around 3.00-3.25%.
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Barclays: Fed'in Eylül ayında faizleri 50 baz puan indirme olasılığı çok düşük
Golden Ten Data August 4th News, Barclays stated that we now expect the Federal Reserve FOMC to cut interest rates three times in September, November, and December this year, each time by 25 basis points. We assume that the labor market will show continued resilience in the August report, and the unemployment rate will stop rising. Based on this assumption, we currently consider a 50 basis point rate cut in September to be unreasonable. However, if the unemployment rate continues to rise, it will raise concerns about the labor market cooling faster than expected. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the unemployment rate to gradually decline to 4.2%, and inflation forecasts to remain unchanged. We continue to expect the FOMC to cut interest rates three times in March, June, and September next year, and we expect concerns about a lack of further progress in inflation in the second half of 2025 to cause the FOMC to pause rate cuts after the federal funds rate reaches the range of 3.75-4.00%. In the long run, we continue to believe that the neutral interest rate level is around 3.00-3.25%.