Bitcoin sees over 27k options contracts expire! Analyst: Bear market characteristics continue to dominate

According to Greeks.live data, on April 10, 27,000 BTC options and 151,000 ETH options expired on the same day. The BTC options Put Call Ratio is 0.71, and the maximum pain level is at $69,000. Greeks.live analyst Adam noted that all indicators in the crypto market itself point to bearish characteristics.

Today’s Options Expiry: BTC and ETH Key Data Overview

Key Indicators for April 10 Expiring Options

(Source: Greeks.live)

1. BTC Options

Number of contracts expiring: 27,000 contracts

Put Call Ratio: 0.71 (tilting bullish)

Maximum pain: $69,000

Notional value: $19.4 billion

Major open interest is concentrated in contracts expiring at the end of April and the end of June.

2. ETH Options

Number of contracts expiring: 151,000 contracts

Put Call Ratio: 0.77 (tilting bullish)

Maximum pain: $2,050

Notional value: $3.3 billion

BTC options’ market share in the overall crypto options market continues to stay above 80%, and its leading position remains firmly established. Judging from the open interest structure, trading today is mainly focused on end-of-April monthly expiries, with end-of-June quarter-end positions as the next priority.

Technicals: Implied Volatility Plunges, Skew Slightly Edges Up

This week, implied volatility (IV) across BTC’s major tenors fell sharply; most tenors’ IV dropped to around 40%. ETH’s major-tenor IV also fell in sync to around 60%. A decline in IV typically reflects the market narrowing its expectations for short-term price volatility. This translates to reduced option premiums, compressing the profit space for option sellers at the strategy level; for buyers, it means entry costs are relatively lower.

On the skew front, this week it continued to edge up slightly, suggesting that the market’s demand for downside protection has risen a bit, but the increase is limited and has not reached the range where market participants are highly tense about downside risk. Overall, the combined read of IV and Skew shows a mild defensive sentiment rather than strong panic.

Analyst Interpretation: This Week’s Bounce Is an Exception, the Bearish Tone Remains

Greeks.live analyst Adam said that this year, Bitcoin has clearly lagged in both price performance and market attention. This week’s break out of the recent sideways range, driven by news about the halt of hostilities between Iran and the U.S., is one of the few sustained rebound rallies so far this year.

However, Adam emphasized clearly that although a rebound has appeared in the short term, based on core indicators such as fund flows, the overall crypto market is still in a passive state driven by external markets like equities and macro sentiment. The crypto market’s endogenous momentum has not yet formed, and all indicators continue to point to the continuation of bearish characteristics. There is currently no clear signal that market sentiment has shifted structurally.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is options maximum pain (Max Pain), and how does it affect market price action?

Maximum pain refers to the specific price point at which, at options expiry, the overall losses for options buyers are maximized. It is usually also the location where market makers’ total losses are minimized. Market theory suggests that price movement before expiry may be influenced by the “gravitational” effect of maximum pain, but this effect may weaken noticeably during periods of extreme market volatility, and it should be assessed together with the market’s overall momentum.

Does a Put Call Ratio below 1 mean market sentiment is tilted toward longs?

The Put Call Ratio is the ratio of open interest in put options to that in call options. Below 1 means the market holds more bullish call options than bearish put options, and the overall positioning structure is tilted toward bullish expectations. BTC’s 0.71 and ETH’s 0.77 are both below 1, indicating that the market currently still shows relatively optimistic positioning toward both types of assets, but it should be interpreted comprehensively together with the Skew and IV trends.

If BTC’s IV falls to around 40%, what does that mean for trading strategies?

A decline in IV reflects a contraction in the market’s expectations for near-term volatility, and option premiums decrease accordingly. For options sellers, a low-IV environment may compress the profit space of selling strategies. For buyers, the cost to purchase options declines, and the cost-effectiveness of certain long-volatility strategies improves as a result. Currently, BTC’s IV has dropped to around 40%, placing it at a relatively low level in the near term.