Why is Bitcoin up today? “Alireza” opens direct negotiations, and Trump demands that Iran “immediately” stop tanker fees

On April 10, Bitcoin rose to hover near $71,800. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would hold direct talks with Lebanon. The negotiations focus on disarming Hezbollah. This diplomatic breakthrough significantly reduced market concerns about the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Trump, meanwhile, demanded that Iran “immediately” stop charging oil tankers, and urged NATO to commit to ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, a weaker US dollar created a favorable macro environment for Bitcoin.

Direct Talks Between Israel and Lebanon: Removing the Biggest Tail Risk of Ceasefire

The direct trigger for Bitcoin’s rise today is that the biggest tail risk that the market had previously feared was clearly made certain to be resolvable through diplomatic channels. On April 8, the IDF launched a large-scale airstrike on Lebanon, which led Iran to accuse the US of violating the ceasefire agreement and, at one point, caused Bitcoin to fall along with a broad market selloff.

Netanyahu announced the opening of direct Israel-Lebanon talks on Thursday, breaking the deadlock. He said, “The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah, and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon.” On the same day, US President Trump confirmed that he had asked Netanyahu to be “more low-key” in Israel’s actions in Lebanon to align with US-Iran ceasefire diplomacy, and he said Israel had agreed to “reduce the intensity of its actions.”

Jose Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers, noted: “It was the conflict between Israel and Lebanon that previously sparked market concerns about the durability of the Iran agreement—until Israel agreed to negotiate with Lebanon, when it drove a strong intraday reversal in the stock and bond markets.” This market reversal logic has also directly applied to Bitcoin’s price action today.

In addition, CNN reported that European diplomats said that when US President Trump met NATO Secretary General Rutte on Wednesday, he urged NATO member countries to take urgent and concrete measures to help ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz. One diplomat said Trump urged all parties to make commitments “within a few days.” Another diplomat said the issue is not only extremely urgent for the US, but for Europe as well.

Trump posted on Truth Social, saying that reports claim Iran is charging oil tankers for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. “They’d better not be doing that; if they really do, then they’d better stop it immediately!” he wrote.

A Weaker Dollar and Continued Institutional Buying: Structural Support for Bitcoin’s Rise Today

Bitcoin’s rise today is not only driven by short-term geopolitical improvements; behind it, multiple enduring forces are providing support at the same time.

Multiple Catalysts Behind Bitcoin’s Rise Today

Diplomatic Breakthrough Between Israel and Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon agree to open direct talks, removing the biggest external threat to the Iran ceasefire agreement

Weaker US Dollar Index: DXY falls 0.4% to 98.82, reducing the relative holding cost of US-dollar-denominated assets and creating macro upside room for Bitcoin

Institutional Buying Continues to Absorb Supply: Institutional investors, represented by Morgan Stanley’s new Bitcoin fund, continue absorbing market sell-side supply, providing a bottom buffer for the prior 43% pullback

Marginal Improvement in the Hormuz Situation: Iran confirms it will allow up to 15 ships per day to transit and says it is willing to negotiate on frozen assets with the US, cooling systemic energy risk

Expectations of NATO Involvement: Trump pushes NATO member countries to make commitments within days to help ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz, showing Western allies are systematically responding to regional risks

Technical Levels: The Key Bull-Bear Line Near $71,000

(Source: Trading View)

After a 43% pullback, Bitcoin is currently entering low-volume consolidation near $71,000. Trading volume has clearly declined. It shows typical technical signs of a transition from the distribution phase to an accumulation phase, and the 200-day moving average can serve as a reference line for assessing the medium-term trend.

The key support zone in the near term is $68,500 to $70,000. If it can hold, the outlook for short-term recovery is relatively solid. Resistance is concentrated at $76,000 to $78,000. If the weekly close breaks above this range, the technical picture would change significantly, and within 4 to 6 weeks, it may test target levels of $80,000 to $85,000. Conversely, if the weekly close falls below $67,000, the recovery structure would unravel, and the market could retest the $60,000 psychological level.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why Is Bitcoin Up Today?

Israel and Lebanon agree to begin direct talks, removing the biggest ceasefire-damaging factor from before. At the same time, the US dollar index falls 0.4% and institutional buying continues to absorb supply. These three positive factors jointly drive Bitcoin higher today. An analyst at Interactive Brokers said that it was the Israel-Lebanon conflict that previously raised the market’s concerns about the durability of Iran’s ceasefire, and that the opening of Israel-Lebanon talks is the key turning point behind today’s market reversal.

How Do Israel-Lebanon Talks Affect Bitcoin Price Action?

The IDF’s continued attacks on Lebanon are the main basis for Iran’s claim that the US violated the ceasefire agreement, directly threatening the durability of the ceasefire. The start of direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations means this conflict may enter a track of diplomatic handling, eliminating the earlier narrative of Bitcoin’s biggest downside risk and providing a clear positive turn signal for market sentiment.

Where Are the Key Technical Support Levels for Bitcoin Today?

Bitcoin is currently consolidating near $71,000. The key support zone is $68,500 to $70,000. If it breaks, it may retest $60,000. Resistance is at $76,000 to $78,000. After a breakout, it would open the path to test $80,000 to $85,000.