Is Satoshi Nakamoto still alive? A simple reason why the Bitcoin founder has already passed away

The New York Times recently reported on a survey investigation, directly stating that cryptographer Adam Back is highly likely to be the founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter pushed back, emphasizing that if Satoshi Nakamoto is still alive, he couldn’t possibly ignore the quantum-computer threat that Bitcoin is currently facing.

New York Times: Is Adam Back Satoshi Nakamoto?

The arguments in the Times report focus on Adam Back’s cypherpunk background, the technical connection between the proof-of-work system Hashcash he invented and Bitcoin’s design, and the similarities between the two in writing habits and terminology. However, Back has publicly denied this for years.

Carter noted that the report lacks any substantial new evidence, and stylometric analysis is vulnerable to manipulation in terms of statistical methods, with clearly insufficient argumentative strength to support an identification of identity. Still, he admitted that in the future, it may be possible to find the answer to this question with the help of artificial intelligence.

(Will LLMs break network anonymity and privacy: Can AI find out who Satoshi Nakamoto is?)

Quantum computers are closing in: about 1.7 million BTC at imminent risk

At the core of Carter’s argument is an urgent technological crisis. Right now, there are approximately 1.7 million BTC in the Bitcoin network, stored in legacy Pay to Public Key (P2PK) addresses, with a market value exceeding $120 billion, or about 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply. The fatal weakness of this type of address is that it directly exposes the holder’s public key:

Once quantum computers have enough computing power, they can use it to reverse-engineer the private key, thereby gaining complete control of these assets.

According to Google’s latest research, the number of qubits needed to break this kind of encryption may be far lower than previously expected—around 26,000 qubits can complete the cracking within days. Google has also set a deadline for completing a post-quantum cryptography upgrade in 2029, and the U.S. government has required key infrastructure to complete the transition by 2030.

In the industry, it’s widely believed that the so-called “Q-Day (quantum cracking day)” is no longer some distant sci-fi scenario, but a real-world challenge to network security in this century.

(Google aims to complete the quantum migration after 2029, while the Bitcoin community consensus remains unclear)

Has the Bitcoin community taken action?

Faced with this potential crisis, the Bitcoin developer community is not without options. In theory, it’s possible, through a software upgrade, to prevent any spending from these legacy P2PK addresses—effectively freezing these assets permanently.

However, in reality, this plan is nearly impossible to carry out. Bitcoin’s core culture is built on “a belief that property rights are sacred and a belief in unchangeable monetary policy.” Forcing users’ funds to be frozen is no different from violating Bitcoin’s founding spirit, and it also triggers strong resistance from parts of the community.

(When Bitcoin no longer wants to change: the real risk is not quantum threats, but a religion-like community)

Carter: If Satoshi Nakamoto is alive, he could not just stand by

This is exactly Carter’s strongest inference. Satoshi Nakamoto himself was already involved in discussions about Bitcoin’s quantum risk as early as 2010, and he is not unaware of this problem. If Satoshi Nakamoto is still alive, and he feels a sense of responsibility toward Bitcoin, he has every ability to take action while maintaining anonymity:

Transfer the held Bitcoin to new addresses that use post-quantum encryption, or directly send these assets to a burn address—it can fundamentally eliminate the risk of quantum attacks.

However, since Satoshi Nakamoto faded from public view starting in 2010, these assets have never moved. Carter believes that a Satoshi Nakamoto who is still alive and cares about Bitcoin’s future cannot possibly remain indifferent to such an urgent systemic threat. The only reasonable explanation is that he is already unable to act, or that he died long ago.

Is Satoshi Nakamoto still alive in this article? A simple reason why the Bitcoin founder has already passed away first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.