Taiwan’s real estate market: Q1 transaction volume hit the third-lowest level in history! A sales agency says directly, “Home prices won’t keep spiking anymore.”

In the first quarter of 2026, Taiwan’s six municipal cities reported only 47,000 property units traded, the third-lowest since records began. With the central bank’s seventh round of crackdowns on hoarding for over a year and a half now fully taking effect, the 2.0 property-holding tax maturing, and the new youth homeownership program (New Qing’an) about to phase out, three sources of pressure are stacking up at the same time.
(Background: Looking back at the history of Japan’s housing market collapse, will Taiwan follow suit under the central bank’s heavy-handed measures?)
(Additional context: New Qing’an 2.0 is coming soon—state-owned banks issue three recommendations; rate subsidies and grace periods may be adjusted downward)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• Agencies say market funding is sufficient, but it will not flow back into real estate
• A “completion wave” for 360,000 households over three years
• The hoarding tax and the phase-out of New Qing’an

In the first quarter of 2026, Taiwan’s housing market is truly cooling down. Across the six municipal cities combined, transaction volume was 47,000 real-estate units—only higher than the 32,335 units in 2016 and the 45,454 units in 2017; down 2.2% year over year, the third-lowest on record.

Although March saw a month-on-month rise of 74.4%, it was mainly a seasonal rebound; year over year it also increased only slightly by 0.4%. Experts say this is not a sustained reversal.

The reason behind it is something everyone already knows: in September 2024, the central bank rolled out the “heaviest housing crackdown ever,” the seventh round of selective credit controls. Since then, the housing market has remained sluggish for more than a year and a half. In March 2026, while the central bank loosened rules slightly—raising the loan-to-value ratio for the country’s second-home loans by natural persons from 50% to 60%—industry assessments say the impact is limited, and the atmosphere of capital holding back remains thick.

Agencies say market funding is sufficient, but it will not flow back into real estate

According to ETtoday’s House and Property Channel report, Huang De-guo, chairman of Gold Brick Dynamics Marketing, put it plainly: “In the past, housing prices surged a lot, but rents couldn’t keep up, and investment returns fell. The issue of construction labor and materials costs is difficult to replicate. Fundamentally, it’s hard for housing prices to surge like they did in the past again.” He urged the government to keep easing regulations, but implied that even if policies loosen, the momentum for housing price increases is far weaker than before.

Xie Kun-cheng, chairman of Wanqun Real Estate, said conservatively: “Relaxing the second-house policy by 10% would help boost confidence in the secondary-home market, but its help for the pre-sale market is limited. Market funding is abundant, yet it doesn’t flow into real estate. The key lies in product strength and pricing strategy.” He said it’s not just about how far loan-to-value ratios can be adjusted, but that buyers have already lost confidence in pricing.

Housing price trends support this observation. From Q3 2024 to Q4 2025, housing prices across the six cities fell by 4.8% to 8.9%. In February 2026, the nationwide Tsinghua Anfu housing price index rose only 0.12% month over month, with the year-over-year decline still at 2.71%.

Ye Ling-qi, general manager of Yongqing Real Estate’s business, estimates that housing prices will continue to fall nationwide over the full year of 2026 by 3% to 7%. In areas with strong rigid demand, prices will drop 3% to 5%; in areas with abundant supply, prices will drop 5% to 7%.

A “completion wave” for 360,000 households over three years

What worries the market the most is the supply impact over the coming years. From 2023 to 2025, new home starts across Taiwan totaled about 380,000 units. It’s expected that from 2026 to 2028, these will be completed gradually—320,000 to 360,000 units. At that time, the unsold inventory awaiting sale held by developers is expected to reach 80,000 to 100,000 units, creating a massive selling pressure.

Regional divergence in real estate has become very clear. In Taipei City, with limited supply and stable demand, the estimated price decline will not exceed 5% to 6%, giving it the strongest resilience. The southern situation is not optimistic: in parts of Tainan and Kaohsiung, price declines may exceed 10%. March data also shows this gap—for example, in Taichung, the annual sale price fell 22%; in Kaohsiung it dipped slightly by 0.8%. Tainan rebounded 18.5%, and New Taipei also rose 18.3%. Within the same period, the hot and cold markets are different.

Li Tong-rong, chairman of the board of directors of the Real Estate Brokerage Association (All Federation), offered a slightly more optimistic view: “The average decline across the six cities is about 10%. This downturn won’t last too long and won’t be too deep. We expect the market to stabilize and stop falling and warm up in 2027.” But his optimistic outlook is conditional on one prerequisite: the supply of new units must be absorbed first.

Hoarding tax and the phase-out of New Qing’an

In 2026, two policy variables are worth noting:

• Hoarding tax 2.0 fully takes effect: The tax period runs from July 1 of the previous year to June 30 of the same year. In 2026, it is the first full year reflecting the annual impact. The tax burden increase is most evident for non-owner-occupied properties with four households or more; for “multiple-property owners,” the overall tax burden increases by 1.6 to 2.4 times.
• New Qing’an ends in July 2026: The successor New Qing’an 2.0 conditions are clearly tightened. The interest rate is at least 2.3% (down from the original subsidy period’s 1.775%), the grace period shrinks from 5 years to 3 years, and the “Article 80 clause” restricting elderly borrowers is added. Using a test case of 10 million and a 40-year term, the monthly payment rises from 29,112 to 31,818, meaning an additional 2,706 per month.

As for the central bank, Yang Chin-lung stated in December 2025 that there is currently no plan for a round eight housing crackdown. Starting in 2026, overall bank controls on mortgage loan volumes for real estate will also return to internal management by each bank, and the overall policy direction is more about observation rather than adding pressure. However, the core terms of the seventh round remain unchanged: loan-to-value ratios for home purchases for borrowers with the third household and above are still only 30%.

Ye Ling-qi of Yongqing estimates that the transaction volume of the six cities for the whole year this year will be about 251,000 to 264,000 units. Compared with the peak levels of 2020 to 2021, it is still clearly shrinking. The market’s issue is no longer whether it can wait; it’s how many buyers will still be left to pay once the time comes.