Gate News message, on April 1, in a recent report, Goldman Sachs analysts said that since the outbreak of the war with Iran, market pricing for the U.S. federal funds rate (the U.S. benchmark rate) has swung dramatically, but the likelihood of rate hikes in 2026 remains relatively low. The analysts said the current supply shock is smaller in magnitude and more limited in scope than past shocks that triggered inflation problems, and the rise in oil prices is also clearly less than the levels seen in the 1970s. In addition, the analysts believe that “the economy’s starting point makes it less likely that inflation will spill over widely,” and the current monetary policy starting point also lowers the probability of further rate hikes. The analysts emphasized: “The Fed typically would not tighten policy solely in response to an oil shock.”
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