Wintermute: Bitcoin price is getting ready to “make a big move”! Worst-case scenario could drop into the $60,000 range

Market maker Wintermute’s latest weekly market report says the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract volume to spot volume has risen to 15x, funding rate volatility has compressed to the lowest level of this cycle so far, and although market leverage is high, there’s no directional consensus; the structure is more like a “compression buildup,” or it’s building toward a larger one-way move.
(Background recap: Wintermute’s take on Trump pausing Iran’s attack: BTC has three scenarios—optimistic to $80K, pessimistic testing $65K)
(Additional context: Glassnode: Accumulation structure is forming in the $60K–$70K range, but the strength is far weaker than the prior all-time high)

Table of contents

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• Perpetual contracts dominate the order book
• $14 billion options expiry clears positions
• Two scenarios

Bitcoin is now 175 days past its all-time high of 126,000, with a cumulative drawdown of 45.8%. In the weekly market report released by market maker Wintermute on March 30, it didn’t rush to call a direction; instead, it noted that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract volume to spot volume has climbed to 15x, while the volatility range of the funding rate has compressed to the lowest level of this cycle. This suggests that the long-versus-short direction implied by leverage is currently unclear.

BTC fell about 3% last week, closing near $66,700 and slipping below the $70,000 support level. ETH also broke below $2,000 for the first time since February. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for several consecutive days, totaling about $300 million for the week; Ethereum ETFs outflowed about $205 million over the same period.

Perpetual contracts dominate the order book

Wintermute points out that when the perpetual contract-to-spot volume ratio reaches 15x, it means price action is being driven by leveraged positions rather than by organic capital flows. This is a relatively fragile structure, but looking at the ratio alone can’t tell which side leverage is biased toward.

The answer from the funding rate is “no answer.” Funding rates keep jumping back and forth between positive and negative; longs and shorts continuously rotate, get stopped out, and then rebuild positions—there is no sustained directional bias forming at all. The funding rate’s own volatility (rolling funding rate vol) is currently only 2.9%, the lowest level in the past year, far below the 5% level seen in last year’s March through April.

In plain terms, long/short leverage is overcrowded right now, and the range of this tug-of-war is shrinking even further.

$14 billion options expiry clears positions

The quarterly options expiry on March 27 cleared $14 billion in BTC options notional value, wiping out about 35% of the open interest at exchanges in one go. Wintermute believes this changed the market’s defensive structure.

Before options expiry, market makers’ delta hedging behavior tends to form passive buy and sell orders around key strike prices—like a cushion—making it less likely for price to shift dramatically. Now, that cushion is gone. Add to that the fact that ETFs are seeing net outflows on both BTC and ETH at the same time, and perpetual contracts leverage is still high but with no direction; Wintermute’s view is, “This kind of structure won’t grind slowly—it will snap directly.”

The options market’s implied volatility (DVOL) is 53, not cheap; it’s clearly higher than the low-30s level from last summer, and the spread between implied and realized volatility is also basically in line. But Wintermute believes the market is pricing an “orderly choppy consolidation,” and hasn’t fully reflected the energy that the perpetual-contract compressed structure might release.

Over the past 12 months, there have been two cases where the spread between implied volatility and realized volatility went deeply negative. The most recent instance (this past February) saw realized volatility jump to 80-plus directly—this is a chain of liquidations triggered by a reversal in crowded positioning.

Two scenarios

On the macro front, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has entered its fifth week with no substantive resolution yet. The S&P 500 closed at a seven-month low, the VIX rose to an 11-month high, and the bond market continues to price a “higher for longer” rate path; the probability of rate hikes within the year is up to about 25%. Brent crude is above $112, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively sealed.

Wintermute laid out two possible paths forward:

2. Optimistic scenario: The geopolitical situation eases meaningfully; oil pulls back to around $100; the short side faces squeeze pressure; BTC rebounds into the $70,000–$74,000 range. If the easing continues, the $74,000 resistance level will be tested.
3. Pessimistic scenario: War conditions escalate further; oil pushes toward $120; BTC drops to just above $60,000. If the cycle analogy holds (after a top in 2017, 364 days later the low saw an 83.4% drop, and after 2021, 378 days later the low saw a 76.6% drop), the target could land in the mid-to-high $50,000 range

But Wintermute emphasizes that the direction of price here is actually secondary—the truly important thing is the market structure itself. Perpetual-contract leverage has built up high; funding rates are in one of the narrowest ranges in history; and even the volatility of volatility is compressing. No matter which direction ultimately triggers the move, the actual magnitude of volatility will far exceed the expectations reflected in current spot, perpetual, and options prices.

The above is not investment advice; for high-volatility investments, please research carefully.